British Pound holds below 1.3250 after a downward revision of UK GDP

GBP/USD retreats to session lows near 1.3220 after rejection at the 1.3270 area.
UK economy grew below expectations in Q1, according to the final GDP reading.
US Dollar remains steady not far from YTD highs, amid Fed monetary policy repricing.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The British Pound (GBP) is giving away previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by the downward revision of the UK’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The GBP/USD pair is trading just above session highs at 1.3222 at the time of writing after failing to break above the top of last week’s trading range, at the 1.3270 area.

UK economy grew at a 0.6% pace in the first three months of the year, according to the final estimation released by the Office for National Statistics. These figures have been left unchanged from previous estimates, but the year-on-year rate has been revised down to 0.9%, from the previously estimated 1.1%.

The quarterly expansion has been broad-based, with the Services sector leading the advances, and with manufacturing and construction growing in unison. On the negative side, real household disposable income fell by 0.8% in the first quarter of the year, after rising 1.2% in the last quarter of 2025.

Beyond that, the political impasse in the UK is putting additional pressure on the Cable. Andrew Burnham, the best-positioned candidate to replace Keir Starmer at Downing Street, pledged to “lift the country back up” while sticking to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules, but the market awaits his first decisions to take positions on the Pound.

In the US, hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, probably as soon as September, keep the US Dollar buoyed, with investors awaiting key US labour data to confirm those views. The JOLTS Job Openings is expected to show solid employment creation later on the day, although the highlight of the week is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Thursday. June’s payrolls are expected to show an 110K increase in net employment, after 172K in May, to confirm the bright outlook of the US labour market and pave the path for Fed tightening in the coming months.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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