|

British Pound: Eyes near key moving averages versus US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists observe that GBP/USD (Cable) selling has stalled as UK political uncertainty persists, with Prime Minister Starmer facing a potential leadership challenge. They expect Cable to find support around its 100-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average below, while June Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) pricing remains steady despite elevated Gilt yields.

Cable steadies as politics swirl

"In the UK, PM Starmer is staying put, rejecting calls by a growing number of Labour party MPs and four cabinet ministers to set a timetable to leave by September. The PM will meet Health Secretary Wes Streeting today before the King’s Speech."

"The threshold of 81 MPs has been met which implies that a leadership challenge could be launched anytime with the timing set by the NEC. Allies of Streeting believe he has a brief window of opportunity to contest the leadership before Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, returns to parliament."

"The 10y Gilt yield dipped to 5.06% in early trading this morning, down 7.5bp from the intra-day high yesterday. The 30y gilt yield reached 5.814%, the highest since 1998. Pricing for the June MPC meeting hasn’t moved since the election last Thursday, 10bp is priced in for next month."

"Cable selling stalls before Health Sec Streeting meets PM Starmer this morning. Support 1.3482 (100dma) before 1.3420, resistance 1.3660."

"Today’s King’s Speech which sets out the legislative agenda of the government for the coming year is another test whether Starmer can project authority."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD flirts with 1.3500 as USD finds fresh demand

GBP/USD is flatlining near the 1.3500 level the second half of the day on Tuesday, facing some pressure from renewed US Dollar demand as a safe-haven amid surging Oil prices and inflationary concerns. The focus now remains on the Middle East headlines, with Wednesday's US CPI data approaching as this week's key risk event.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1550 amid US-Iran impasse

EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and trades marginally lower on the day below 1.1550. Traders seem hesitant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis and this week's release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold off two-month highs, back below $4,400 amid surging Oil prices

Gold retreats from its highest level since June 5 at $4,435, touched earlier this Tuesday, and slides back below the $4,400 mark in European trading. Surging Oil prices, amid the US-Iran impasse on talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rekindled inflation concerns, lending support to the US DOllar at the expense of the non-yielding bullion.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate, XRP dips as optimism for a US-Iran deal fades

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a neutral outlook on Tuesday while testing support at $64,000. Investors appear to be sitting on the fence, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout above $65,000.

The inflation narrative is still way more important than the employment story
Core bonds sold off yesterday with the belly of the curve slightly underperforming in the US while European curves showed more of a bear flattening. Daily changes on the US curve varied between +4.7 bps (2-yr) and +6.4 bps (7-yr).
9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.