Brent: Conflict premium eases on de-escalation hopes – DBS

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that Brent remains capped below $100 as markets reassess Iran conflict risks and shift focus toward a potential diplomatic off-ramp. The report links receding peak fear in Oil to US domestic political pressure and tentative steps by Tehran to ease Hormuz constraints, with implications for Brent and the broader risk environment into early summer.

Brent capped as peak fear recedes

"While US-Iran talks remain at a stalemate, Brent crude’s inability to rush significantly above $100 suggests that "peak fear" is receding, replaced by a pivot toward major-power diplomacy and a potential normalization by early summer."

"As the March 28 deadline for President Trump’s ultimatum approaches, markets are hoping the conflict pivots from brinkmanship toward a de-escalation window. While Tehran maintains a stance of public defiance, it is open to managing indirect negotiations with the US through intermediaries, including Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Oman."

"While it is not the full opening demanded by Trump’s ultimatum, Tehran’s decision to begin granting selective access to vessels from friendly nations like Thailand and China has provided a preliminary, if fragile, relief valve for energy markets to the Hormuz chokepoint."

"For more signs of trade normalization, markets are paying attention to global maritime insurers’ willingness to rescind the Notice of Cancellation orders and begin underwriting transits for non-hostile vessels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)