The Australian labor market figures for December will be released on Thursday, January 18 at 00:30 GMT. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Aussie’s outlook ahead of the employment report.
Is the labor market still robust?
There is certainly a risk that we will see a lower figure due to seasonal effects from the summer in Australia. However, these effects have been somewhat stronger in January in recent years (and were largely revised in retrospect), so I would be skeptical of assuming a significant slowdown tonight.
This does not necessarily mean that the RBA will raise rates again due to the robust labor market. But any positive number should make it more likely that the RBA won't cut rates anytime soon.
If I am right with my arguments, the Aussie could benefit again and recoup some of Tuesday's losses vs. the US Dollar.
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