Australian Dollar holds gains after mixed Australian, Chinese data
- AUD/USD holds gains near 0.7180 in Thursday’s Asian session.
- Australia’s Unemployment Rate steadied at 4.3% in March, in line with the consensus.
- Traders will closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
The AUD/USD pair holds positive ground around 0.7180 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Greenback amid mixed economic data from Australian and Chinese dockets.
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday showed that Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.3% in March. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Additionally, the Australian Employment Change arrived at 17.9K in March. This reading followed 49.7K in February (revised from 48.9K), missing the forecast of 20K.
On the Chinese front, the annual March Retail Sales increased by 1.7% versus 2.3% expected and 2.8% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 5.7% versus 5.5% estimate and February’s reading of 6.3%. Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.3% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to a 1.2% growth in Q4 of 2025. The Aussie attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the mixed readings.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that the US and Iran are closer to extending a ceasefire and restarting negotiations about a longer-term peace deal. However, tensions remain particularly high over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas that’s been effectively shuttered since the start of the war almost seven weeks ago.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
