Australian Dollar falls near 0.7000 ahead of US PCE inflation data

AUD/USD breaks the 0.7000 mark, struggling ahead of US inflation data.
US PCE is the key catalyst, as a stronger-than-expected reading could support a hawkish Fed stance and put renewed pressure on the pair.
China remains important to the Aussie; the PBoC left rates unchanged at 3% as expected.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair fell near the 0.700 area on Monday, struggling to extend gains as investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.

Attention now turns to the upcoming US PCE inflation report, which will be released on Thursday. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance, supporting the Greenback and putting renewed pressure on AUD/USD.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) left interest rates unchanged earlier in the day. China-related sentiment also remains important for the Australian Dollar, given Australia’s strong trade exposure to the world’s second-largest economy.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6997, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it sits beneath both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly 0.7013 and 0.7075. The pair is capped by a tight band of nearby resistance levels just overhead, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 suggests persistent downside pressure rather than an imminent recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7002, followed by a more congested barrier near 0.7013–0.7020, where a horizontal cap aligns with the 20-period SMA. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure, with the 100-period SMA near 0.7075 acting as a higher resistance hurdle. On the downside, the first notable support comes in at 0.6995, where a horizontal floor guards against a deeper extension of the recent decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

GBP/USD hovers around daily lows near 1.3450

GBP/USD trades with decent losses on Thursday, revisiting the 1.3450 zone. Cable’s resumption of the selling interest comes after two daily advances in a row and follows the improved sentiment around the Greenback amid fresh concerns in the Middle East.

EUR/USD slips back to two-day lows near 1.1510

EUR/USD faces some renewed downside pressure and retests the low 1.1500s in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session. The move lower in spot comes after two daily advances in a row and follows the fresh bid bias in the US Dollar amid the re-emergence of some effervescence in the Middle East. Moving forward, US NFP data will take centre stage on Friday.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Whales absorb retail distribution as bear market nears late stage

Ethereum (ETH) large holders have been accumulating the supply of retail investors in 2026. In a report released late Wednesday, CryptoQuant analysts highlighted that the supply of the 1K-10K ETH cohort has fallen from 15.6 million ETH in January to roughly 12.9 million ETH.

Markets question Fed's inflation resolve after July FOMC meeting

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh continues to project a tough stance on inflation, repeatedly promising to restore price stability and keep inflation anchored at the central bank's longstanding 2% target. But according to Mike Maharrey in this week's Money Metals Midweek Memo, markets are beginning to judge the Fed by its actions rather than its rhetoric—and so far, they aren't convinced.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.