|

AUD/USD trips down below 0.6500, though clings to weekly gains despite upbeat US GDP

  • AUD/USD drops on upbeat US data amidst a risk-on mood.
  • The US Dollar got bolstered by GDP and unemployment claims data, though Durable Orders missed estimates.
  • Australia’s Q3 CPI justifies the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week’s rate hike.

The AUD/USD tumbled below 0.6500 from weekly highs around 0.6521 after news emerged that the US economy grew at a higher pace than estimated, snapping a “technical recession” after back-to-back quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) readings. Therefore, the US Dollar got bolstered, as shown by the AUD/USD diving towards 0.6470, down 0.37%, at the time of writing.

The Q3 preliminary GDP reading smashed estimates

The Australian Dollar lost traction when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US Advance Q3 GDP rose by 2.6%, crushing estimates of 2.4%. Factors like the trade deficit narrowing in the third quarter summed 2.77% to the GDP’s increase. The same report flashed that consumer spending is slowing down, from 2% in Q2 to 1.4%.

Elsewhere, the US Department of Labor revealed Initial Jobless Claims the week ending on October 22, which jumped by 217K, lower than the 220K foreseen, though slightly up from the previous week. Durable Good Orders offset that, missing estimates, increased by just 0.4%, below 0.6% MoM, expectations

The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against a basket of peers, climbs 0.53% at 110.277, while US Treasury yields tumble. The US 10-year bond yield is losing six and a half bps, down at 3.943%, weighed by speculations of a Fed pivot.

Aside from this, Australia’s inflation report on Wednesday escalated speculations for another Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate hike. Inflation for Q3 rose 7.3% YoY, while the RBA’s favorite inflation gauge, core trimmed mean rose by 6.1% YoY. According to analysts at Westpac said, “Rates markets continued to place a high probability on the RBA raising the cash rate 25bp next week but yields rose for later dates, such as the May 2023 contract, up from 3.88% to 3.95% and above 3% in mid-2023.” Therefore, the RBA’s next meeting

AUD/USD Key Technical Levels

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price0.6482
Today Daily Change-0.0015
Today Daily Change %-0.23
Today daily open0.6497
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.6363
Daily SMA500.6604
Daily SMA1000.6765
Daily SMA2000.6998
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.6511
Previous Daily Low0.6372
Previous Weekly High0.6393
Previous Weekly Low0.6197
Previous Monthly High0.6916
Previous Monthly Low0.6363
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6458
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.6425
Daily Pivot Point S10.6409
Daily Pivot Point S20.6322
Daily Pivot Point S30.6271
Daily Pivot Point R10.6548
Daily Pivot Point R20.6598
Daily Pivot Point R30.6686

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.



USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold recovers on positive US-Iran headlines

Gold extends its recovery during American trading hours on Monday, supported by falling Oil prices following positive headlines on US-Iran talks. The metal regains ground after hitting a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin braces for US midterm elections as historical sell-offs revive downside concerns
Bitcoin (BTC) braces for the impact of the US midterm elections, just a week after the $6 billion hack from Binance. Historically, congressional elections have negatively affected not just the president’s party but also Bitcoin. In the last 22 midterms, the ruling party has gained House seats only twice, while the three most recent elections coincided with Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms.
Why strong US growth could not stop the bond rally and AI selloff

The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate, yet Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The market is no longer rewarding capital expenditure simply because it supports growth. Investors are testing whether that expenditure can produce cash flow and returns above the cost of capital.



The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.