AUD/USD: Risks to turn lower on a break below 0.7675 – Credit Suisse

AUD/USD remains trapped in a range after a volatile intraday reversal on Wednesday. However, a move below the key price lows at 0.7688/75 would still confirm an in-range top to turn the risks lower, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

Resistance seen at 0.7814/18

“A break below the 0.7676/75 range lows is still needed to complete a ‘descending triangle’ top and turn the risks lower within the broader range. Next supports thereafter are seen at 0.7588/86, with the size of the potential top suggesting a move to the year to date lows at 0.7532/31 and the 200-day average, which we would expect to prove a tough barrier.” 

“Near-term resistance stays at 0.7774, above which on a closing basis would lessen the topping risk. Resistance thereafter stays at 0.7814/18, above which should reassert an upside bias and resolve the tight range higher, with the next level then seen at 0.7892/7905, above which would reassert the broader medium term uptrend for a move back to the 0.8000/07 high.” 

“We expect the 0.8000/07 level to prove a tough barrier, however a break can trigger a move to the 0.8126/36 2018 highs.”