|

AUD/USD rises as RBA rate hike bets grow, US inflation steady

  • AUD/USD strengthens as markets anticipate a possible RBA interest rate hike next week.
  • US inflation data comes in line with expectations, with the CPI holding steady at 2.4% in February.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising Oil prices are fueling global inflation concerns.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7150 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.42% on the day and extending its winning streak for a fourth consecutive day. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains supported by growing expectations of monetary tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at next week’s RBA meeting, according to Reuters, which would bring the policy rate to 4.1%. These expectations were reinforced by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who warned that Oil price volatility and tensions in the Middle East represent a significant challenge for central banks. According to him, the magnitude and persistence of the energy-driven inflation shock remain highly uncertain.

On the US side, the latest inflation data did little to change monetary policy expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 2.4% YoY in February, in line with market forecasts, while monthly inflation accelerated to 0.3% from 0.2% in January. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% MoM and 2.5% on an annual basis, in line with forecasts.

These figures suggest that price pressures in the United States (US) remain contained but persistent, still slightly above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target. Investors widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting while waiting for clearer evidence that inflation is cooling.

At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to drive uncertainty in financial markets. The conflict between the US and Iran has entered its twelfth day, while risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global Oil shipments, are keeping energy markets on edge. This situation could reinforce global inflation pressures and influence central bank policy decisions in the months ahead.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.22%0.03%0.30%0.07%-0.47%0.17%0.11%
EUR-0.22%-0.17%0.06%-0.14%-0.67%-0.03%-0.10%
GBP-0.03%0.17%0.26%0.03%-0.50%0.13%0.07%
JPY-0.30%-0.06%-0.26%-0.23%-0.76%-0.13%-0.19%
CAD-0.07%0.14%-0.03%0.23%-0.53%0.11%0.03%
AUD0.47%0.67%0.50%0.76%0.53%0.64%0.61%
NZD-0.17%0.03%-0.13%0.13%-0.11%-0.64%-0.07%
CHF-0.11%0.10%-0.07%0.19%-0.03%-0.61%0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Ghiles Guezout

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

More from Ghiles Guezout
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital
If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.
BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.