AUD/USD Price Forecast: Near-term bias turns bearish as correction extends below 20-day EMA
- AUD/USD plunges to near 0.7160 as surging US bond yields have strengthened the US Dollar.
- Traders have priced out the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year.
- Positive responses regarding the Trump-Xi meeting are favorable for both the US Dollar and the Australian Dollar.
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.8% lower to near 0.7160 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair faces intense selling pressure as the US Dollar outperforms its peers amid a significant surge in US Treasury yields.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | 0.21% | -0.17% | -0.09% | 0.54% | 0.57% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.48% | -0.21% | -0.34% | -0.29% | 0.34% | 0.35% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | 0.17% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.69% | 0.71% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.09% | 0.29% | -0.08% | 0.59% | 0.60% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.80% | -0.54% | -0.34% | -0.69% | -0.59% | 0.02% | -0.56% | |
| NZD | -0.80% | -0.57% | -0.35% | -0.71% | -0.60% | -0.02% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | 0.02% | 0.23% | -0.13% | -0.05% | 0.56% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% higher to near 99.20, the highest level seen in over two weeks. 10-year US Treasury yields are up 1.6% to near 4.53%, the highest level seen in almost a year.
US bond yields have gained significantly as traders have priced out the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year in the wake of accelerating inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices.
Meanwhile, the positive commentary from Washington and Beijing regarding their bilateral trade outlook after the meeting between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has also offered strength to the US Dollar.
The scenario is also favorable for the Australian Dollar (AUD), given that the Australian economy relies meaningfully on its exports to Beijing.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades sharply lower at around 0.7161, holding just beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7184, which keeps the near-term tone mildly bearish as the pair fails to reclaim this dynamic barrier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls vertically to near 49, hinting at fading upside momentum rather than a directional extension.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 0.7184 is the first level to beat for buyers; a daily close above this area would ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a further recovery towards the almost four-year high of 0.7277. Looking down, the pair could slide its ongoing decline towards the April 29 low of 0.7100.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
