AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flirts with 200-SMA on H4, just above mid-0.7100s amid weaker USD

AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note as US-Iran deal hopes weigh on the USD.
Bets for a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 could limit deeper USD losses and cap gains for the pair.
The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair opens with a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week and sticks to intraday gains above mid-0.7100s through the Asian session. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and assists spot prices to move away from the lowest level since April 14, touched last week.

However, the US and Iran remained at odds over key issues, including blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's nuclear program, keeping a lid on the market optimism. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, should help limit deeper USD losses and cap further gains for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective pullback from the vicinity of the highest level since June 2022, touched earlier this month. Bulls now await a move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart before placing fresh bets.

Meanwhile, a mildly positive Relative Strength Index near 58 and a gently positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest upside momentum is building. However, price action remains finely balanced, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond this key moving average before positioning for any further appreciation.

The subsequent move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at the 50.0% retracement near 0.7175, which is followed by the 61.8% level at 0.7197, with higher hurdles seen at 0.7230 and 0.7270. On the downside, a break below the 38.2% retracement at 0.7152 would expose the 23.6% level at 0.7124, ahead of the stronger structural support around 0.7079.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.31%	-0.36%	-0.21%	-0.13%	-0.46%	-0.44%	-0.31%
EUR	0.31%		-0.06%	0.11%	0.17%	-0.16%	-0.13%	-0.02%
GBP	0.36%	0.06%		0.17%	0.23%	-0.11%	-0.06%	0.03%
JPY	0.21%	-0.11%	-0.17%		0.08%	-0.29%	-0.26%	-0.16%
CAD	0.13%	-0.17%	-0.23%	-0.08%		-0.35%	-0.32%	-0.22%
AUD	0.46%	0.16%	0.11%	0.29%	0.35%		0.03%	0.14%
NZD	0.44%	0.13%	0.06%	0.26%	0.32%	-0.03%		0.10%
CHF	0.31%	0.02%	-0.03%	0.16%	0.22%	-0.14%	-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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