AUD/USD Price Forecast: Corrects to near 0.7150 in countdown to Warsh’s confirmation hearing
- AUD/USD retraces to near 0.7150 as the US Dollar gains ahead of Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing.
- Kevin Warsh is known for opposing QE in the Fed’s balance sheet in his previous work at the central bank.
- Iran has not made any official confirmation to have another round of talks with the US.
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.35% lower around 0.7150 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair corrects after a sharp upside move on Monday, as the US Dollar (USD) rises ahead of the confirmation hearing of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next chairman at 14:00 GMT.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.36% | -0.14% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.16% | 0.11% | -0.40% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.24% | -0.00% | -0.02% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.39% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.14% | -0.39% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.24% | -0.28% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.24% | -0.52% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.40% | 0.39% | 0.39% | 0.28% | 0.52% | 0.41% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | 0.00% | -0.00% | -0.03% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% higher to near 98.25.
Kevin Warsh’s testimony at his confirmation hearing is expected to be significant for the US Dollar’s outlook, as it will indicate his ideology towards the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. In his previous work at the Fed, Warsh was known for having a preference for a strong US Dollar and opposing Quantitative Easing (QE) in the Fed’s balance sheet.
Meanwhile, an absence of official confirmation from Iran regarding its return to the table with the US to resume peace talks has also improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. However, Washington confirmed that Vice President (VP) JD Vance will leave for Pakistan to attend ceasefire talks with Tehran.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7150 during the press time. However, the price holds a constructive bullish bias as it extends above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7072 and continues to preserve the broader rising trend from the 0.69 area. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the uptrend support line projected from the 0.6585 base, with a key reference level around 0.6922, continues to underpin the advance.
Momentum remains supportive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering above 60.00, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone without yet venturing into overbought territory.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 0.7072 ahead of more substantial trend support aligned with the rising line near 0.6922. As long as price holds above these underlying levels, dips are likely to be absorbed, keeping the path of least resistance pointed higher. Looking up, the spot could aim to reclaim the multi-year high of around 0.7222. A decisive close above 0.7222 would expose the pair towards 0.7300.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
