Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles near $60.30, US CPI takes centre stage
- Silver consolidates at around $60.30 ahead of the US CPI data on Wednesday.
- The US CPI is expected to have grown at a faster pace in September.
- US Treasury Yields are under pressure after an extended weekend.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $60.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal consolidates as investors shift their focus to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday.
The inflation data is expected to have a significant impact of Federal Reserve (Fed’s) interest rate expectations.
Strategists at OCBC note that markets “currently expect the Fed to remain on hold in October before delivering a fully priced 25bp rate hike in December.” They argue that the “key question is whether upcoming CPI data can alter that sequencing by bringing forward expectations for further tightening.”
OCBC added that while consensus forecasts point to “firmer headline inflation due to higher energy costs, core inflation is expected to remain relatively contained.”
In their view, “if core inflation moderates as expected, markets could further trim expectations for additional Fed tightening.” OCBC adds that “it would likely take a core CPI print of 0.4% m/m or higher to materially shift market pricing and strengthen the case for earlier Fed action.”
According to FXs Economic Calendar, the US headline inflation rose to 3.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.4% in August. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is seen arriving at 2.5% YoY, higher than the previous reading of 2.4%.
During the European trade, the 10-year US Treasury Yields are down almost 1% to near 5.19%. Technically, lower US bond yields improve the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD has been in a limited range of $58.50-$62.09 for over weeks, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.85. The metal has retreated from recent highs and now trades under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting upside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.94 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent but not extreme selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 20-period EMA at $61.85, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside risks and allow a recovery toward higher levels. On the downside, momentum support is implied by the RSI hovering near 42, as a deeper slide in price would likely push the oscillator closer to oversold territory and could pave the way for a corrective bounce if bears overextend the move.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
