Euro: Tight range with downside bias against US Dollar – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Chris Turner argues that Euro fundamentals remain contained despite German regional election results highlighting political tensions for Chancellor Merz’s CDU. Solid Eurozone growth and investor confidence are offset by downside risks from this week’s ECB meeting. ING expects EUR/USD to hold a narrow 1.1580-1.1640 band with a slight downside bias.

Euro seen contained in tight ranges

"While not a major negative for the euro, Sunday's election results in Saxony-Anhalt will serve as a reminder of the declining popularity of Chancellor Merz's CDU party, and, if backed up by similar results in two further regional elections, raise tensions within the governing coalition."

"So far, the German government's infrastructure and defence spending plans seem to be paying dividends for German growth prospects and international investors will not want to see those interrupted."

"On the subject of growth, today should see eurozone second-quarter growth confirmed at a decent 0.4% quarter-on-quarter figure and also see another decent increase in the Sentix investor confidence data."

"The main event of the week, however, will be Thursday's ECB meeting, where we see some downside risks to the euro."

"Expect EUR/USD to trade a tight 1.1580-1.1640 range today, with our bias to the downside."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD extends decline to fresh monthly lows below 0.7100

AUD/USD trades south of 0.7100 early in the Asian session on Thursday, as the US Dollar soared following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. The Fed delivered a 25 bps rate hike as expected, while policymakers expressed concerns about inflation leading to bets of additional hikes before year-end.

USD/JPY flirts with 156.00 after Fed's hawkish hike

USD/JPY trades at fresh weekly highs around 156.00 early on Thursday, as the US Dollar soared following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. The US central bank hiked the benchmark rate by 25 bps as expected, while Chair Kevin Warsh delivered quite hawkish comments in the press conference that followed the decision.

Gold dips towards $4,250 in the Fed's aftermath

Gold erased intraday gains and turned negative following the Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates by 25 bps as expected. The XAU/USD pair briefly surpassed the $4,360 level, now accelerating its slide towards the $4,250 price zone. Hawkish words from Chair Kevin Warsh fueled bets for additional hikes before year-end.

Fed raises 2026 interest rate forecast to 4.1%, lifts PCE inflation projections

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest dot plot projections, released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, show policymakers now expect interest rates to stand at 4.1% by the end of 2026, up from 3.8% in June.

Fed recap: One hike down, more to come? The Fed’s new rate path says yes

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its Fed Fund Target Range (FFTR) range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous decision, saying the move would support a timelier return to its 2% inflation goal.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.