Ripple Price Forecast: XRP correction pauses, but recovery prospects remain limited

Ripple (XRP) trades around $1.06 on Wednesday, as its correction takes a breather, reflecting the broader cryptocurrency market calm after the storm sentiment. The remittance token sits above a solid support range from $0.94 to the current market price, while its upside is largely capped by structural hurdles, including major moving averages.

XRP Binance Open Interest falls to $189M

The XRP futures Open Interest (OI) on the Binance exchange has fallen to $189 million on Wednesday, the lowest level in three months, according to a report published on CryptoQuant. With August OI averaging $182 million on the same platform, risk-on sentiment has taken a hit.

Bybit's XRP open interest climbed to $255 million, up from $229 million on August 2, while OKX saw XRP derivatives volumes reach approximately $46 million as of November 11.

Aggregate open interest on Binance, Bybit, and OKX has climbed to around $490 million, with XRP trading near $1.06. This underscores the varied levels of derivatives exposure among leading exchanges, with Binance reverting to its early-August levels while Bybit continues to hold a comparatively larger outstanding position.

More broadly, subdued futures OI aligns with the Fear & Greed Index, which held at 29 in Fear territory on Wednesday, down slightly from 32 the previous day. Looking back, the index averaged 69 in the Greed territory last month, undermining diminishing investor appetite.

Technical analysis: XRP holds key support

XRP trades at $1.06, extending a clear bearish phase as price holds well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered between roughly $1.28 and $1.35. The SuperTrend indicator sits above the market at $1.22, reinforcing a dominant downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 24 slips further into oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, both suggesting persistent but stretched bearish momentum.

Initial resistance lies at the SuperTrend barrier near $1.22, ahead of a dense EMA cluster where the 50-day EMA comes in at $1.28, and the nearby downward resistance trendline reference at $1.29 adds to selling pressure. Above, the 100-day EMA at $1.30 and the longer-term 200-day EMA at $1.35 form subsequent resistance layers that would need to be reclaimed to ease the prevailing bearish bias. The absence of clearly defined support levels below spot leaves the pair vulnerable to further downside exploration until fresh demand emerges.

The bearish tone continues on the weekly timeframe, with spot price well below the 50-week, 100-week and 200-week EMAs at $1.46, $1.55 and $1.37, respectively, which sit overhead as a broad cap, while a long-running descending trendline projected from prior cycle highs adds topside supply around $1.44.

Initial technical support is offered by the weekly SuperTrend line around $0.94, which marks the first notable demand zone if sellers extend control. On the topside, a recovery would first need to challenge the 200-week EMA near $1.37, ahead of the descending trendline barrier around $1.44 sustained break above these would then expose the higher EMA cluster, with the 50-week EMA at $1.46 followed by the 100-week EMA near $1.55, acting as subsequent resistance layers that are likely to limit gains on initial tests.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)