Monero Price Forecast: XMR tests bullish breakout of key resistance amid third stressnet release

Monero (XMR) holds steady above $560 at press time on Monday, sustaining its roughly 3% gains from the previous day. Monero announced the v3.0 release of Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) and its new addressing protocol, CARROT beta stressnet. Retail demand for XMR remains firm, with its futures Open Interest (OI) up over 4% in the last 24 hours to $263.33 million. 

The technical outlook for XMR remains bullish, with a key focus on buyers testing the breakout of a key resistance trendline near $565.

Monero releases third stressnet for its next network upgrade

Monero announced the v3.0 beta stressnet release of its Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) upgrade and its new addressing protocol CARROT. The upgrade focuses on hot and cold wallet support, increasing the anonymity set from 16 decoys to over 100 million to improve privacy, and enabling Layer-2 network protocols for faster block confirmations and near-instant, consecutive payments. 

Retail speculation grows strong

Monero is gaining retail strength in the derivatives market. CoinGlass data shows that XMR futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $263.33 million, up over 4% in the last 24 hours, suggesting a mild increase in the notional value of active contracts as spot prices rise. The volume at $132.89 million is up 56% over the same period, indicating increased retail activity, while the funding rate rises to 0.0347% from 0.0104% the previous day, suggesting increased demand among traders for long positions.

Technical outlook: Monero builds momentum

Monero trades around $564 at press time on Tuesday, maintaining a mild bullish bias. The privacy token holds well above the 50-, 100-, and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the four-hour chart at $548, $545, and $525, respectively.

From a technical perspective, XMR shows a rebound within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the four-hour chart, formed by the two converging trendlines. The overhead trendline lies around $565, with the support trendline near $537. In addition, the 50% retracement level measured from $609 to $518, at $563, reinforces the overhead barrier.

A confirmed breakout above the resistance cluster near $565 could open the way toward the $609 swing high if bullish pressure persists.

Momentum is constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 64 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rising above its signal line, suggesting that buyers retain control of the trend.

On the downside, initial support is aligned at the 50-period EMA at $548, while deeper pullbacks could expose the 100-period EMA at $545, the rising trendline near $536, and the 200-period EMA at $525.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)