Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could be set for a comeback as US-Iran nears agreement

Ethereum price today: $2,130

• Ethereum holds above $2,100 as the US and Iran are reportedly nearing an agreement. 
• BitMine's Thomas Lee says ETH could perform better if the war ends, given its strong inverse correlation with Oil prices.
• ETH remains limited by overhead EMAs.

Ethereum (ETH) has continued to hold above $2,100 on Thursday, following reports that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement mediated by Pakistan. The deal allegedly includes a cease-fire on all fronts plus a joint monitoring mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the reports, US Oil prices slid below $100 toward $96 while the S&P 500 turned positive.

The resolution of the war could "decisively" impact Oil prices and, in turn, determine how Ethereum performs in the coming weeks, according to BitMine Immersion Chairman Thomas Lee. In a Thursday X post, Lee noted that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlighted the need for policy firming in the minutes of its last meeting if inflation stays above 2%.

"Higher Oil is pushing up inflation. Thus, higher Oil [equals] higher probability of Fed hikes," Lee stated. "And $ETH and crypto prices are linked to monetary liquidity. Thus, crypto will be inversely correlated to Oil."

In a separate X post on Monday, Lee argued that rising Oil prices are the biggest headwind for ETH, as the top altcoin's correlation to the commodity is at its highest. "As Oil rose in the past 6 weeks, ETH prices have fallen," Lee wrote.

However, he stated that the current inverse correlation with Oil is temporary tactical noise, claiming that ETH will perform better as the year unfolds due to stronger "structural drivers" in tokenization and agentic AI.

Market participants noted that Lee had flipped sentiment, citing previous comments in which he touted ETH as the best-performing asset since the start of the US-Iran war.

Thomas Lee's BitMine is the largest corporate Ethereum treasury, holding roughly 5.278 million ETH after another round of acquisition last week.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Potential ETH rally limited by EMAs' resistance

Ethereum has seen $47.9 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $24.2 million in long liquidations, per Coinglass data.

On the daily chart, ETH bulls have held the $2,108 support level, although prices continue to maintain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 20-, 50- and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered from roughly $2,225 to $2,326.

This stacked configuration of overhead EMAs suggests rallies remain corrective within a broader downside phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 and a subdued Stochastic reading around 21 hint at lingering, but not extreme, bearish momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier around $2,211, followed by the 20-day EMA near $2,225 and the 50-day EMA close to $2,244. A stronger cap emerges at the 100-day EMA near $2,326, ahead of a more distant obstacle at $2,388.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned near $2,108, with further cushions at $1,909 and $1,741, while deeper declines could expose the $1,524 and $1,405 levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)