Dogecoin Price Forecast: Whale accumulation supports tentative rebound amid mixed signals

Dogecoin (DOGE) extends its recovery, trading above $0.087 on Monday after a 9.5% drop last week, as buyers try to regain control after the sell-off. Santiment data shows selective whale accumulation, suggesting that some holders are using the price dip to increase their exposure. Traders should be cautious as mixed derivatives data and weakening momentum indicators suggest that the recovery remains fragile.

Some whales are buying DOGE dips

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data supports a mild bullish outlook, as some large-wallet holders (whales) are buying DOGE tokens and cushioning its price drop.

The metric indicates that whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million (red line) and 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have accumulated 130 million DOGE tokens since Thursday, amid the price drop. During the same period, wallets holding 1 million and 10 million (yellow line) have shed 70 million tokens. This highlights that whale sentiment remains mixed, with buying activity across smaller and larger cohorts while distribution comes from mid-sized holders. 

However, the net accumulation suggests selective buying interest among the dog-themed meme coin investors following last week’s price decline, supporting a mild rebound.

Mixed derivatives cap recovery

Derivatives metrics show a mixed outlook. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for DOGE reads 0.93 on Monday. This ratio below one reflects bearish sentiment, as more traders are betting on the meme coin to fall.

However, the funding rates point to improving sentiment. CoinGlass’ OI-weighted funding rate data for DOGE flipped positive on September 10, reading 0.0066% on Monday. This positive rate indicates longs are paying shorts and signals a bullish sentiment.

This divergence points to mixed sentiment among DOGE traders, with no directional bias, capping its upside.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s summary data also shows a bearish outlook for the dog-themed meme coin. DOGE’s spot and futures markets show overheating conditions, while the futures market shows large whale orders but with sell-side dominance. This highlights a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among meme coin traders.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Weakening momentum indicators

Dogecoin price trades at $0.087 on Monday, retaining a capped tone as it sits below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at roughly $0.087 and $0.093. The meme coin still holds above the 100-day EMA near $0.086, which offers initial dynamic support. Still, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line below zero both hint that downside pressure is persisting after the recent rejection from the $0.100 area.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 50-day EMA around $0.087, reinforced by the nearby horizontal cap at $0.088, ahead of the more substantial barrier from the 200-day EMA near $0.093 and the recent swing ceiling at $0.102.

On the downside, a daily close below the 100-day EMA at about $0.086 would open the door to a deeper pullback, with the broader uptrend facing more meaningful structural support only closer to the $0.070 horizontal floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)