Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE stays weak despite whales and new deal

Dogecoin (DOGE) price remains under pressure, trading below $0.081 on Thursday despite a modest rebound earlier this week. Santiment data shows signs of accumulation, and Wednesday’s announcement of a Dogecoin Labs partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation adds a mildly bullish sentiment.

Meanwhile, mixed derivatives metrics and weakening momentum indicators continue to limit the meme coin recovery.

Whales accumulate DOGE

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data supports a mild bullish outlook, as some large-wallet holders (whales) are buying DOGE tokens and cushioning its price drop.

The metric indicates that whales holding between 1 million and 10 million (yellow line) and 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have accumulated 170 million DOGE tokens since Tuesday, supporting a mild recovery.

Dogecoin Labs unites Dogecoin’s product teams

Dogecoin Labs announced on Wednesday that it formed in partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation, consolidating products, intellectual property and development teams behind the Dogecoin ecosystem into one independent organization.

“Led by CEO Jordan Jefferson, founder of MyDoge and DogeOS, Labs will combine application infrastructure, consumer distribution and development expertise to build an economy around DOGE at the scale of its global community,” reported the DogeOS press release.

Dogecoin Labs will own and operate MyDoge, DogeOS and Such App, with intellectual property and development teams being contributed from both the Dogecoin Foundation and House of Doge.

These partnerships aim to streamline development, strengthen the ecosystem’s infrastructure, and expand real-world applications for DOGE, which could support its long-term bullish outlook.

Derivatives data caps recovery

Derivatives data shows a cautious outlook for the meme coin. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratios for DOGE read 0.80 on Thursday, nearing the lowest level over a month. A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders bet that asset prices will fall.

However, Dogecoin funding rates flipped positive on Monday, reading 0.0055% on Thursday, indicating longs are paying shorts and suggesting a mild bullish outlook.

On-chain data shows a cautious outlook

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a bearish outlook for Dogecoin. DOGE’s futures markets show large whale orders alongside overheating conditions in both markets. In addition, the spot and futures markets also show sell-side dominance. This highlights a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among dog-themed meme coin traders.

Dogecoin technical outlook: Momentum indicators remain soft

Dogecoin price trades at $0.080 on Thursday, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price sits below the main Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 100-day and 50-day EMAs at roughly $0.085 and $0.086, together with the previously broken ascending trendline now acting around $0.088, create a dense band of overhead supply. At the same time, the 200-day EMA higher up near $0.092 reinforces the broader topside pressure.

Momentum remains soft, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifting just under the neutral 50 level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line still below zero, which suggests rallies could struggle while these barriers remain intact.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the clustered $0.085–$0.086 region marked by the 100-day and 50-day EMAs, followed by the confluence of the broken uptrend support and a horizontal barrier near $0.088. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA around $0.092 guards a more distant hurdle before the key horizontal ceiling at approximately $0.102 comes into play.

On the downside, immediate support sits at about $0.077; a clear break below this floor would expose further weakness, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative phase within the current bearish-biased range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)