Crypto recovers as Fed decision looms

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation rebounded by 1.5% to $2.71T, buoyed by positive momentum in traditional markets. However, the fact that it remains below the 50-day moving average suggests market caution. Among the most liquid coins, the ratio of gainers to losers over the past 24 hours stands at 12:1. The top gainers were Bitcoin Cash and Near Protocol (both up 6.3%), as well as Hyperliquid (up 4.8%). Dash (−1%), Hedera (−0.3%) and Internet Computer (−0.1%) are down.
 The main short-term risk is the Fed’s rhetoric. Concerns about inflation and a willingness to raise interest rates could intensify sell-offs across markets, including cryptocurrencies. A wait-and-see attitude could bring buyers back, creating the conditions for a new rally following a prolonged slide. In our view, despite high oil prices and inflation seeping into core commodities, the Fed will be more cautious in its wording than the market expected a month ago, taking into account the rapid deterioration in equity market sentiment and the fragility of the debt markets.

Bitcoin has returned to the $80K region, trading just below $81K at the start of European trading. So far, this looks like a rather modest attempt to move away from local lows against a backdrop of fairly low trading volumes. BTC remains below the 50-day moving average, which serves as a short-term trend signal. A return above this level could be an important signal that the consolidation phase is ending, putting the bulls back in control. However, if we see increased selling pressure upon touching this line, we should be prepared for a more widespread capitulation among short-term traders, with the potential for a rapid decline to $73K–$75K.

News background

Renowned venture capitalist Jason Calacanis has urged investors to sell Bitcoin amid outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. According to the investor’s forecast, Bitcoin will return to $57K over the next 12 months and will not surpass its all-time high again.

Analyst Ansem has revised his forecast for Bitcoin and Ethereum to bearish following a break in the medium-term trend. He cited a correction in the AI sector of the US stock market as the main risk factor. The expert remains bullish in the long term and sees potential in certain on-chain projects.

Moody’s Analytics has identified a cryptocurrency market crash as one of the most likely economic shocks over the next 12–18 months. Investors are facing growing uncertainty due to inflation and high borrowing rates, which are hampering speculative investment.

Santiment notes the potential for a BTC recovery based on four key indicators: price dynamics, market participant positioning, on-chain metrics and macroeconomics. At the same time, rising US public debt is providing long-term fundamental support for BTC.

The price of Bitcoin in ounces of gold has returned above its 200-day moving average after spending 316 days below it, Strive points out. Three such signals in the past have preceded BTC gains of 42–142% over the following 12 months.

Ethereum developers have fixed a bug relating to validator deposits ahead of the upcoming Glamsterdam update. The activation of the hard fork on the Hoodi testnet, previously scheduled for 26 October, has been postponed. The developers have not yet announced a new date.

Summary: The crypto market rebounded by 1.5% to $2.71T, with Bitcoin back above $80K. The market awaits the Fed with hawkish rhetoric as the main risk, but cautious wording could spark a rally.