Crypto: Bulls count on seasonality

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation stood at $2.76T on Monday, 2.5% below the levels seen seven days ago. The market has been trading within a narrow range around its 50-day moving average for the past four days, finding support on dips to $2.70T, but lacking the momentum to break above $2.80T. The movement over the past 24 hours is giving cause for cautious optimism, as the coins with the largest market capitalisation are gaining between 1% and 2%. Among the most liquid coins, those rising outnumber those falling by almost two to one. The leaders in growth are Hyperliquid, Uniswap and Solana, each gaining just over 2%. The biggest declines were seen in Hedera (−3.8%), Basic Attention Token (−2.4%) and Aptos (−2.2%). In traditional markets, a local bottom often forms towards the end of October. Consequently, investors in major coins are banking on seasonal trends working in their favour to recoup last week's losses.

Bitcoin is up 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $82.8K. Over the weekend, bulls continued to buy dips in Bitcoin near the 50-day moving average, creating a favourable backdrop for the entire cryptocurrency market. Risk appetite in Asian trading is helping BTC, but so far, this rise is better described as a rebound than a resumption of upward momentum. Last summer, fluctuations around this level stretched out over a month, and it was only the strong surge on 19 August that signalled the start of a bull run. 

News background

Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have continued for a second week, totalling $228.6 million. Outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs in the US have continued for a third consecutive week, totalling $320 million. 

The US is accumulating Bitcoin and, for the first time since 2022, has become a net importer of the cryptocurrency, while other countries are actively buying dollars, according to Chainalysis. American investors view Bitcoin as a scarce safe-haven asset. 

Since the end of August, crypto whales have increased their holdings by 60,000 bitcoins to nearly 3 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant. Holding onto these accumulated coins could offset sales by investors taking profits and contribute to the asset's further growth. 

Bitcoin's 12-month average daily volatility has fallen to 43%. This is on par with most S&P 500 shares, and only 19% of the index's shares outperform BTC on this metric. Grayscale attributes the decline in volatility to the influx of institutional investors and the launch of regulated spot ETFs. 

French Capital B reported a net loss of €69.5 million ($78.1 million) for the first half of 2026 due to a decline in the value of its Bitcoin reserves. However, the company continues to accumulate cryptocurrency, increasing its holdings to 3,538 BTC by the end of September, up from 2,823 BTC in January.

Summary: The crypto market ($2.76T) is holding steady around the 50-day MA, with Bitcoin rising by 1.4% to $82.8K. Bulls are banking on favourable seasonal trends, but ETF outflows are holding back growth.