Cardano Price Forecast: Bulls push higher as open interest, funding rates rise

Cardano (ADA) extends gains, trading above $0.262 on Wednesday, after rallying more than 14% so far this week. The bullish momentum is supported by rising Open Interest (OI), positive funding rates and signs of whale accumulation. If buying pressure persists, ADA could extend its rally and target higher levels.

Cardano’s derivatives metrics show bullish bias

Cardano’s derivatives metrics show strengthening conditions. CoinGlass’ Open Interest (OI) chart for ADA across exchanges has surged since mid-September, with outstanding contracts reaching 2.37 billion ADA coins on Wednesday.

The increase in OI alongside rising prices suggests that new long positions are entering the market, signaling a bullish outlook and raising the potential for further upside in ADA.

In addition, Cardano’s funding rate flipped positive on September 17 and surged to 0.010% on Wednesday. This indicates longs are paying shorts, reflecting a bullish outlook for ADA.

Whales accumulating ADA tokens

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data shows certain large-wallet holders (whales) buying ADA, supporting a positive outlook for the token.

The metric indicates that whales holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA tokens (blue line) have accumulated 140 million tokens since Saturday. During the same period, holders of 100,000 to 1 million tokens (red line) and 1 million to 10 million tokens (yellow line) shed 30 million tokens. This indicates that accumulation among larger holders has outweighed selling from the mid-sized cohort and smaller whale cohorts, suggesting a mixed but broadly supportive accumulation trend for Cardano.

Some signs of concern

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows cautious signs. Cardano’s futures markets show large whale orders; however, they also show sell-side dominance and overheating conditions following the massive price surge.

In addition, spot markets show overheating conditions while other metrics remain neutral, highlighting a mildly bearish, cautious sentiment bias among ADA traders.

Cardano technical outlook: Bulls aiming for $0.300 mark

Cardano price trades at $0.262 on Wednesday after gaining over 14% so far this week. ADA is extending its advance above the short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between roughly $0.205 and $0.209 and well above the longer-term 200-day EMA at $0.239, which together suggest a constructive near-term bias. 

The break and subsequent hold over the former trendline pivot near $0.192 reinforces the shift to a more positive structure. In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73 signals overbought conditions and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds above zero with a positive reading, hinting that bullish momentum remains firm but increasingly stretched.

On the downside, initial support is now seen at the recent breakout area around $0.245, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.239 and the nearby horizontal level at $0.236, where buyers would be expected to show interest on a corrective pullback. 

Deeper declines would expose the 50-day EMA at $0.208 and the 100-day EMA at $0.205 ahead of the former trendline break price at $0.1928. At the same time, the next significant topside hurdle is the horizontal resistance zone near $0.299, where overbought momentum could encourage profit-taking.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)