Can Bitcoin hold above 76k ahead of Fed and clarity act vote

Bitcoin is showing resilience ahead of what could be a crucial week for the digital currency, as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are set to hike rates, while the Senate will vote on whether to advance the Crypto Clarity Act. 

Clarity Act vote 

The first key event for crypto will be on Tuesday, when the crypto markets will face their day of reckoning as U.S. officials debate the Clarity Act. Senate Republicans today released the last, best and final offer for the text of the Act, as part of bipartisan negotiations to provide the industry with a clear legal framework in the U.S. 

Ethics has been a clear area of contention, and President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions. 

The vote takes place at 2:15 ET on Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to pass. If the bill passes in its latest form, it can advance to the floor for Senate debate. On Polymarket, the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 remain low at just 34%. 

FOMC rate decision 

The next focus, and potentially the greatest focus, will be on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. 

The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%. The move is around 86% priced in after a strong non-farm payroll report and Friday's core CPI, which came in hotter than expected. 

Given that the move is priced in, the focus could be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who faces pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump not only to avoid a hike but to cut rates. Warsh has a dislike for forward guidance, so the focus could instead be on updated projections and the dot plot. 

Any sense of a hawkish Federal Reserve, particularly if it signals another hike in December, could lift the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, then pull Bitcoin lower. 

However, it's also worth noting that the meeting comes as yields trade near multi-year highs. Should the market get a sense that the Federal Reserve is getting inflation under control, then a hawkish-sounding Fed may actually help push yields lower, which could be beneficial to Bitcoin and other risk assets. 

If the Fed fails to hike rates, questions would be raised over the Fed's credibility, and crypto would likely be a winner. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

BTC continues to consolidate between $76.4K and $81.3K. The price trades above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs, maintaining a constructive outlook. The 50 MA has just crossed above the 200 MA in a golden cross bullish signal. 

The price recently found support at the $76.4K level. Should this support hold, buyers will look to extend gains towards the $81.4K and $82.9K resistance zone, the September high and the May high. Above here, attention turns to $90,000. 

Should sellers take out the $76.4K support, attention turns to the $73K support zone, where the 50 and 200 EMAs converge with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $82.9K high and $57.7K low. Below here, $70K comes into focus ahead of $65K.