Bitcoin tests $80K support ahead of Fed decision and big tech earnings

Bitcoin has kicked off this catalyst-heavy week on the back foot, testing key support at $80,000. The mood remains cautious as investors look ahead to central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, as well as core PCE inflation data and big tech earnings. 

The price of the largest cryptocurrency fell to $79,000 in the Asian session and has since recovered to $80,300 at the time of writing, leaving it down 2.45% over the past seven days. Bitcoin trades down almost 4% so far in October, a historically strong month. 

This week provides plenty of key catalysts that could determine BTC's next move. 

1) Federal Reserve rate decision 

The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, and the market is pricing in a 90% probability that it will leave rates unchanged at 3.75%–4%. The focus will therefore be more on the statement and Fed Chair Warsh's comments than on the decision itself. A hawkish hold could push Treasury yields and the USD higher while weighing on BTC and other risk assets. The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, so hawkish commentary could lift these expectations and drive market reaction. 

2) US core PCE and Q3 GDP data 

In addition to the FOMC decision, core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and Q3 GDP data will be released in the days following the announcement and could reverse the initial market reaction. Core PCE is forecast to rise to 3.1% year-on-year in September, while Q3 GDP is expected to expand by 3.2% annualised. Hotter-than-expected inflation and stronger economic growth could lift yields and the USD. If this follows a hawkish Fed hold, BTC could come under further pressure. 

3) Big tech earnings 

Big tech earnings continue this week, with Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft providing further insight as investors weigh massive AI spending against revenue growth and questions over monetisation. Last week, Meta tumbled 7% after huge AI spending and negative free cash flow unnerved the market. The sell-off in tech stocks pulled BTC lower as risk appetite deteriorated. Should big tech earnings further worry investors, BTC could fall. However, if results calm AI jitters, dip-buyers could step in as BTC tests $80K. 

4) BTC ETF flows 

BTC ETFs are also worth watching after recording $635.5 million in net outflows on Thursday, the largest single-day withdrawals since June 2026, and a further $137.9 million in net outflows on Friday. However, BTC ETFs still recorded net inflows over the last week of $104.6 million. This comes after two weeks of net outflows. But October remains negative, with BTC ETF outflows of $174.5 million so far this month. Persistent outflows could keep BTC under pressure.  

BTC technical analysis 

BTC/USDT has extended its decline from the eight-month peak at $87,300, falling below the key 50 EMA, which had been holding the price in recent sessions, and $80,000, the psychological level. The break below these levels, combined with an RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further downside. 

On the downside, the next support is seen at the 200 EMA around $76,200. A break below this level would open the door to $74,000, near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the $57,700 low to the $126,000 high. Below here, attention turns to $70,000 and then $65,000, both psychological levels. 

On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim a cluster of overhead resistance, including the 50 EMA at $80,700, followed by resistance at $82,000, the August and May highs, and $84,000, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A move above $87,000 would be needed to establish a fresh higher high and bring $90,000 into focus, followed by $95,000.