Bitcoin returns to $63K, eight weeks of outflows from ETFs are weighing on

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation rose to $2.21T at the start of trading on Monday, but soon corrected to $2.18T, while still up by over 5% from the previous week's levels. Despite the positive momentum, the situation remains within the bounds of a corrective rebound, having failed to climb even above the region of previous local highs at $2.27T. Without consolidating above this level, the market remains in a downtrend characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

The sentiment index has been rising by 1 point per day since 3 July, reaching 24 by the start of 6 July. Remaining in the ‘extreme fear’ zone, the index is now at its highest level in over a month, clearly reflecting the gloomy sentiment.

Bitcoin closed last week near $63K, having recovered to the 200-week moving average, a key historical support level. At its peak on Sunday, the price approached $64K. However, by Monday, the bulls had run out of steam, and the market came under selling pressure once again, pushing the price back by about $1K. 

News background

According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs totalled $526.6 million over the shortened week. The negative trend has continued for eight consecutive weeks. Net outflows from ETH-ETFs amounted to a modest $13.7 million for the week.

The volume of deposits in Bitcoin and altcoins on exchanges has risen sharply, which historically signals periods of heightened volatility in the crypto market, CryptoQuant warns. A similar surge was observed before BTC’s decline from $82K in early May to levels below $58K by the end of June.

The current situation in Bitcoin is similar to that of 2022, according to an analyst at Rekt Capital, who expects BTC’s decline to continue. In past crypto cycles, the market bottom was reached approximately one year after the last peak.

The launch of StratAlexegy’s Bitcoin reserve sell-off mechanism has created an “avoidable two-way risk” for the market, according to JPMorgan. The very possibility of such trades increases uncertainty and volatility.

Japanese financial conglomerate SBI has announced the closure of its mining pool. The SBI Crypto platform, which accounts for 2 per cent of the Bitcoin network’s hash rate, will cease operations on 31 July.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin outlined the project’s key development areas as part of the Lean Ethereum concept. The focus is on quantum resilience, privacy, scalability and the restructuring of key protocol elements. 

Summary: The crypto market has rebounded but remains under pressure: market capitalisation is below local highs, the fear index is rising, and BTC has slipped back from $64K.