Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing its longest capitulation since the end of the 2022 bear market, onchain analytics platform Glassnode reported on Monday.

Key points

• 45 Bitcoin price metrics tracked by Glassnode are in their longest “capitulation” phase since the collapse of FTX in late 2022.
• Aggregate readings still have to turn colder to match areas that marked previous bear-market bottoms, says creator Rafael Schultze-Kraft.

45 Bitcoin price metrics spend 2026 in "capitulation" zone

Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, a composite BTC price metric overview tool, has signaled capitulation throughout 2026. 

The tool, created by the platform’s co-founder, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, combines data from 45 indicators to present an overall picture of market health as Bitcoin price cycles repeat. A majority blue heatmap indicates a period of “capitulation” within the cycle, with red pointing to the euphoria characteristic of momentum toward cycle peaks.

After a euphoric phase in November 2021, the heatmap flipped to blue for the majority of 2022. In November that year, cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed, an event that coincided with Bitcoin’s last bear-market bottom of $15,600.

“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor,” Schultze-Kraft commented on the Heatmap’s latest readings.

In addition to basic price gauges such as market cap, the heatmap puts a considerable focus on the profitability of the Bitcoin investor base, dividing it into short-term (STH) and long-term (LTH) holders.

Certain metrics, Schultze-Kraft notes, change their behavior over time, requiring a more nuanced reading when used for cycle signals. Among these is dormancy — the number of days a unit of BTC has spent idle when used in an onchain transaction. Here, the ageing investor base means that dormancy increases over time, differing between cycles.

Coldcard hack spikes sub-1 BTC transactions

In its latest Market Pulse report released on Monday, Glassnode was complimentary regarding the resilience of market participants.

“On-chain activity strengthened materially. Daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moved above their upper statistical bands, indicating a notable increase in network engagement and economic throughput,” it reported.

Stabilization of capital outflows remained despite a knee-jerk reaction by certain investors in the wake of the low-entropy bug exploit in Coldcard hardware wallets.

Data from analytics platform CryptoQuant likened the uptick in onchain transactions of 1 BTC or less to the aftermath of the FTX implosion. On July 31, the daily tally reached 39,600 BTC, compared with 39,900 on Nov. 16, 2022.