Bitcoin higher as yields ease

Bitcoin edges higher but struggles to build momentum

“Bitcoin is up almost 1% today, but the bounce remains tentative after a sharp retreat from the $87,402 high of 21 September, its highest level since January. The price has fallen through and then re-entered the $82,814-$82,035 support area, and buyers have yet to show real conviction. The pressure has come mainly from rates, with the US 10-year yield reaching around 5.32%, close to levels last seen in 2002, and the Fed’s 25 basis point hike on 16 September reinforcing the tightening mood. A firmer dollar has added to the strain, but the recent easing in yields offers some hope, taking the edge off the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like bitcoin.”

ETF flows – Demand cools sharply

“The shift in ETF flows has been the most telling change. US spot funds took in $2.39 billion in the week to 25 September, the strongest weekly figure since October 2025, but that slowed to just $241 million the following week and has now turned negative, with roughly $456 million withdrawn across the first three sessions of this week. Wednesday’s $485 million outflow was the largest single-day exit since June, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC and ARKB. The longer view is more encouraging, as September’s $2.65 billion of inflows pushed 2026’s cumulative total back into positive territory, suggesting demand has become more sensitive to price and macro conditions than to any change in institutional appetite. A sustained fall in yields could bring buyers back.”

What we’re watching – CPI, earnings and Oil

“Tomorrow’s CPI is the next big test. An upside surprise could quickly reverse the recent relief in yields and revive fears that the Fed has more work to do, while a softer print would give bitcoin a lift. Earnings season then gets into full swing, and solid numbers from the major US corporates could help steady risk appetite. Oil is the wild card, with Brent back above $100 on Middle East tensions, feeding inflation expectations and limiting the Fed’s scope to ease. If crude keeps climbing, risk appetite could suffer, and bitcoin, with ETF support fading, would be poorly placed to resist.”