Bitcoin falls as Coldcard hack overshadows falling Oil and treasury yields

Bitcoin is falling below 63k at the start of the week as concerns over Coldcard wallet attacks overshadow falling oil prices and Treasury yields amid hopes of renewed US-Iran talks. 

Bitcoin is down 0.5% over the past 24 hours and 4% across the past week, while the total cryptocurrency market cap has fallen 0.7% to $2.15 trillion. 

The move lower comes despite oil dropping 8% and US futures pointing to a stronger open on reports that the US and Iran will resume talks today in an effort to reach a deal over Iran's nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Falling oil prices are also helping Treasury yields ease as inflation concerns cool. Typically, lower yields, a softer dollar and easing inflation fears would provide a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin. 

The fact that Bitcoin is falling despite a more supportive macro backdrop suggests crypto-specific concerns are currently dominating the price action. 

Coldcard hack weighs on sentiment 

However, Bitcoin trades under pressure amid concerns over Coldcard hardware wallet attacks, which have reportedly drained $89 million in Bitcoin from more than 4,500 addresses. 

Losses linked to the vulnerability have reached 1,367 BTC, according to Galaxy Research. The incident is one of the largest Bitcoin self-custody failures in recent years and has prompted users to move funds to new wallets or centralised exchanges as a precaution. 

Smaller Bitcoin holders have moved almost 40,000 BTC in transactions of less than 1 BTC, the biggest daily move from this group since the FTX collapse in November 2022. This doesn't necessarily point to a major wave of selling, but it does highlight growing security concerns and is weighing on sentiment near term. 

Could the NFP report bring clarity after the FOMC confusion? 

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is busy this week, culminating in Friday's non-farm payroll report. Last week's FOMC meeting delivered a more hawkish-than-expected vote, although Fed Chair Walsh failed to set out a clear path for returning inflation to the 2% target. 

This makes Friday's jobs report particularly important. A strong print could revive expectations of a September rate hike, removing some of the macro support from lower yields and potentially adding another headwind for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin trades below its 50, 100 and 200 EMAs, maintaining a bearish bias. The recent failure to reclaim the 50 EMA reinforces the bearish picture, with the price now testing support at 62.5K, the mid-July low. The RSI remains below 50, keeping sellers in control. 

Sellers will look to break below 62.5K, opening the door to the psychological 60K level and the 2026 low at 57.7K. A break below here would create a lower low, exposing 55K and then 50K, levels from 2024. 

Buyers will need to reclaim the 50 EMA at 65K and break above 67.5K, where the 100 EMA converges with the June 15 high, to expose the 200 EMA at 73K. A move above here would make the broader outlook more constructive.