Bitcoin fails to match US equities surge despite strong Nasdaq correlation — K33

Bitcoin is challenging the long-term perception that it behaves as a leveraged proxy of the Nasdaq, according to a K33 report released Tuesday.

Bitcoin beta weakens despite strong Nasdaq momentum

The report noted that Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq pushed above 0.7, a level previously seen only during major macro-driven periods such as April and October 2022, before a repeat in March 2025. K33 analysts suggest that while equities have played a major role in BTC's recent recovery, Bitcoin has not matched the scale of their surge in the past few weeks.

Nasdaq futures gained 27% between March 30 and May 8, marking the strongest 30-day performance for the index in 16 years. Historically, traders often expect Bitcoin to amplify such moves because of its reputation as a high-beta risk asset. However, K33 noted that data from previous equity rallies over the past few years show that the opposite dynamic has frequently occurred.

"Periods where 30-day Nasdaq returns exceeded 10% have typically coincided with declining BTC beta, indicating that BTC has not behaved as a leveraged extension of equity upside," K33 stated.

K33 added that Bitcoin has historically behaved differently during market downturns. During periods of sharp Nasdaq declines, BTC's beta has generally increased, suggesting that deleveraging and risk-off sentiment tend to hit crypto markets harder than equities.

"The current regime of elevated correlations, exceptionally strong Nasdaq returns, and declining BTC beta is not unusual relative to BTC's behavior during Nasdaq expansions over the past three years. Instead, it strengthens the case against the common view of BTC as simply a leveraged Nasdaq proxy," K33 added.

The report also highlighted Strategy and its STRC perpetual preferred stock program as an increasingly important source of Bitcoin demand.

K33 explained that STRC pays monthly dividends, with the ex-dividend date falling on the 15th of each month. As investors accumulate STRC shares ahead of dividend payments, Strategy can issue additional shares through its at-the-market program and use the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin.

Bitcoin acquisitions tied to STRC issuance have accelerated significantly this year, rising from 4,467 BTC in January to nearly 47,000 BTC in April. The report also noted that trading activity in STRC surged on Monday as the preferred stock recovered toward the $100 par value ahead of Friday's ex-dividend date, potentially setting the stage for another round of sizable Bitcoin purchases this week.

Beyond market structure, K33 pointed to regulatory developments in Washington as another potential catalyst for crypto markets. 

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance the Clarity Act on Thursday, with the latest draft described as broadly constructive for the crypto industry despite debates surrounding ethics provisions, DeFi protections and stablecoin rewards.

Bitcoin trades at $80,600 on Tuesday, down 1.5% on the day.