Bitcoin Elliott Wave outlook: Final fifth-wave rally targets $90,000

Bitcoin holds support after extending gains to $81,370

Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained its bullish Elliott Wave structure since our July 1 update. In our previous analysis, we tracked a potential five-wave advance and identified $64,402 as the third warning level for bulls, with the third wave expected to extend beyond $77,000.

BTC subsequently held above $64,402 and advanced to $81,370 on Friday, August 28. The move supports the view that price is developing five gray waves within the larger green wave 1. The preferred scenario calls for a final fifth-wave push toward $90,000, with a broader target range of $85,200 to $95,400, provided Bitcoin remains above $72,994.

Figure 1: Bitcoin short-term Elliott Wave count and key technical indicators

Key support at $72,994 defines the bullish outlook

In an impulsive Elliott Wave sequence, wave 4 should not overlap wave 1. That makes $66,919 the structural invalidation level for the current count. However, a decline below $72,994 would already imply an elevated probability that the advance has ended and would shift the near-term risk-reward balance away from bulls.

Price action over the past 12 days has been largely sideways, consistent with consolidation after a strong advance rather than a blow-off top. Bitcoin has also entered the ideal wave 4 target zone, supporting the prospect of one more rally toward resistance. Once the smaller fifth wave is complete, a prolonged second-wave correction toward $65,000, plus or minus $2,000, could unfold before the larger third wave seeks new all-time highs. For now, the focus remains on whether buyers can defend $72,994 and complete the final fifth-wave rally.