Bitcoin can crash to $50K if 'most critical' bear market test fails: Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its “most critical” resistance hurdle of the bear market, new BTC price analysis says.

Key points

• Bitcoin has arguably its most important resistance battle at $84,000.
• A failure to reclaim a 200-day trend line opens up the road down to $50,000 lows, warns analysis.
• The bull market support band needs to hold in the event of a corrective phase.

Bitcoin faces battle to avoid "bear cycle continuation"

In an X post on Wednesday, crypto investment company TradingShot revealed the next key decision point for Bitcoin bulls.

BTC price action continues to test $82,000, according to data from TradingView, but it is the area around $84,000 that will be essential to reclaim as support next.

“Bitcoin is about to test its 1D MA200, the most critical Bear Cycle Resistance but has also already entered the Pivot Zone formed from the previous Low,” TradingShot wrote.

An accompanying chart compares current price performance with the 2022 bear market, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at the center.

At the time, BTC/USD retested the 200-day SMA from below after initially losing it, but the reclaim failed — and the result was a trip to new macro lows.

“This is a familiar pattern that $BTC forms during downtrends, it was also emphatically present during the 2022 Bear Cycle where those Pivot Zones got formed from a previous Low that was later tested as Resistance,” the analysis continues.

Should history repeat, TradingShot is eyeing a dramatic correction, with a bottom target at $50,000.

“A rejection now on this 'Stepping Stones' pattern will confirm the Bear Cycle continuation for BTC to $50000, while a break-out will invalidate it,” it concludes.

As Cointelegraph reported, the $50,000 zone has long been a favorite among traders who see the bear market continuing.

BTC price support band as "main focus"

If the 200-day SMA is the resistance level to beat, two trend lines immediately below price are essential to retain as support, commentators argue.

The so-called bull market support band, formed of the 20-week SMA and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), sits near $78,000.

In some of its latest X analysis, trading account Cryptic Trades said that the support band should stay the “main focus.”

“I believe that as long as price keeps holding above this range, as well as the April 2025 bottoming formation around $76K, the broader market structure remains intact,” it wrote on Wednesday alongside an explanatory chart. 

The other key level to track is the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple around $84K, where I believe we could see a short-term rejection.