Bitcoin bear flag stays active – $64K may trigger selling

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilise above $60,000 following the June FOMC, but the broader bearish structure remains intact.

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, while its median year-end projection moved to 3.8%. That leaves policymakers leaning towards another hold or possible hike rather than the cuts markets previously expected.

For Bitcoin, this adds pressure to an already weak trend. Price remains below its major daily moving averages, has broken beneath a rising channel and continues to underperform US equities.

The main short-term question is whether Bitcoin can rebound towards $64,000. For now, that area looks more like a potential selling event than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

FOMC reinforces the bearish backdrop

The June meeting did not create Bitcoin’s downtrend, but it strengthened the macro case behind it.

Fed officials projected headline PCE inflation at 3.6% and core PCE inflation at 3.3% for 2026. This gives policymakers little reason to deliver the easier financial conditions that crypto typically benefits from.

Higher rates support bond yields and the US dollar, while reducing the appeal of more speculative assets. Bitcoin’s post-FOMC decline therefore followed the existing trend rather than creating a new one.

Bitcoin continues to underperform equities

Bitcoin’s weakness is more notable because US technology stocks have remained relatively resilient.

Investors can attach AI-related companies to earnings growth, revenue forecasts and continued capital spending. Bitcoin currently lacks a comparable near-term catalyst and remains more dependent on liquidity and speculative demand.

This does not mean Bitcoin must always follow the Nasdaq. However, when equities hold firm while Bitcoin breaks support, the divergence points to weaker demand for crypto.

Until Bitcoin begins outperforming equities or reclaiming its major moving averages, that relative weakness supports the bearish outlook.

Daily bear flag remains active

Bitcoin recovered inside a rising channel after falling from above $95,000. Within the larger downtrend, that recovery developed into a potential bear flag.

Price then reached the daily 200 EMA band, failed to reclaim it and broke beneath the channel’s lower boundary.

The daily 50 EMA also remains below the 200 EMA, maintaining the broader death-cross structure.

The chart now shows

• Rejection from the daily 200 EMA.
• A breakdown from the rising channel.
• Continued trading below broken support.
• A retest of the previous low near $60,000.

The wider measured move points towards approximately $38,900, with $50,000 acting as the first major intermediate target.

$64K could become another selling event

Bitcoin is attempting to form a short-term base, which leaves room for a recovery towards the hourly 50 EMA near $63,800.

Above that, the hourly 200 EMA band and previous support sit near $64,450.

This creates a resistance zone between $63,800 and $64,450.

A rebound into this area would not invalidate the bearish setup. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim the zone and hold above it, the move would remain a retest of broken support.

Signs of another selling event would include rejection near the hourly moving averages, weakening volume during the rebound and a return below $63,000.

$60K remains the main trigger

Buyers are defending the previous low around $60,000, so Bitcoin could consolidate or rebound before moving lower.

However, another rejection near $64,000 followed by a return to $60,000 would leave support vulnerable.

A confirmed daily close below $60,000 would strengthen the bear flag breakdown and bring $50,000 into focus. Below that, the wider target remains near $38,900.

On-chain analytics is capping crypto upside

On-chain data also suggests that a sustained Bitcoin rally remains unlikely for now.

The Bitbo NUPL chart shows Bitcoin’s Net Unrealised Profit/Loss still trading within the Hope/Fear zone. Historically, major Bitcoin cycle lows have often formed after NUPL falls into the green Capitulation zone, reflecting a deeper reset in investor positioning.

The current reading suggests that this reset has not yet occurred. While NUPL cannot determine an exact price target, it supports the view that Bitcoin may need to fall further before a durable macro low is established.

Bottom line

Bitcoin’s bearish case remains supported by a hawkish Fed repricing, weakness against equities, rejection from the daily 200 EMA and a breakdown from the larger rising channel.

A rebound towards $64,000 remains possible.

Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that area, the move is more likely to become another selling event than the start of a sustained recovery.