XAU/USD Price forecast: Gold poised to extend its bullish run

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,657

The breakdown in US-Canada trade talks spurred fresh concerns.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to announce measures to financially choke Iran.
XAU/USD gains bullish traction and aims to test sellers´determination around $4,700.

Spot Gold briefly traded above $4,680 a troy ounce on Monday, reaching its highest since mid-May. The XAU/USD holds on to most of its intraday gains in the American afternoon, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to trade lower against most major rivals amid turmoil in the world’s largest economy.

United States (US) President Donald Trump is dealing with two open fronts. On the one hand, Trump has threatened neighboring Canada with massive tariffs, mostly on steel and the automotive industry, after trade talks collapsed last week. According to Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump made disproportionate demands at the last minute.

On the other hand, US Secretary Scott Bessent will hold a press conference to provide details on sanctions against countries or companies that trade with Iran. US President Trump announced last week the next move in the Middle East war will be choking Iran financially.

US President Trump’s threats have lost their weight in financial markets, as has been the case ever since he took office, only to chicken out at the last minute. However, his recent remarks are having a negative impact on the Greenback, with market participants anticipating adverse economic consequences for the country.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, and according to the four-hour chart, XAU/USD has a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,573.09 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $4,350.49 and $4,204.36, respectively. The alignment of these underlying averages reinforces a strong uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 76, far from signaling upward exhaustion. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, turned marginally lower alongside the latest retracement, but remains well above its midline.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD extends its advance well above the main moving averages and keeps a clear bullish near-term bias. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,379.83 and $4,516.97, respectively, sit comfortably below spot, suggesting a solid underlying trend structure, while the 20-day SMA at $4,307.69 underscores how far the latest push has stretched from the short-term mean. Technical indicators maintain their upward trajectory well above their midlines, suggesting the uptrend remains strong.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the $4,573.09 area where the 20-period SMA converges, followed by the $4,500 threshold. A deeper structural cushion comes at the 100-period SMA at $4,350.49 and the 200-period SMA at $4,204.36 if corrective forces intensify. Immediate resistance comes at $4,700, followed by peaks in the $4,730 price zone. Once above the latter, the path towards $4,800 becomes clearer.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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