The US Dollar has recently weakened

Frank Walbaum

Important news this week

Fri, 07th AUg 14:30 CET US NFP Report.
Fri, 07th Aug 14:30 CET CA Unemployment Rate.

Markets await NFP as Dollar eyes a rebound

Markets are entering a waiting mode ahead of today's US Non-Farm Payrolls report, the key event of the week. While overall sentiment remains constructive, traders are reluctant to take large positions before the data. The US Dollar has recently weakened, but technical indicators on the daily chart still suggest the potential for a rebound. A stronger-than-expected NFP report could revive Dollar buying, while another weak reading may reinforce expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve.
Equity markets remain well supported, with investors holding on to recent gains. In contrast, cryptocurrencies continue to struggle. Bitcoin has slipped lower, while most major altcoins remain under pressure. Cardano (ADA) is one of the few exceptions, continuing to show relative strength despite the broader weakness across the crypto market. Meanwhile, USDCAD is trading at an important technical support zone. Today's Canadian employment report, released alongside the US NFP data, could determine whether the pair breaks lower or rebounds from current levels.

Market talk

Today's employment data from both the US and Canada will likely set the tone for FX markets into next week. A strong US jobs report could support the Dollar and trigger a recovery across USD pairs, while stronger Canadian data may accelerate downside in USDCAD. Looking beyond today's releases, traders will also keep an eye on geopolitical headlines over the weekend. Any developments involving the Middle East or global trade could influence market sentiment when trading resumes on Monday, particularly in oil, currencies, and safe-haven assets.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD stronger, BTC correcting, ETH lower, oil positive, Silver at resistance, Gold positive, JPY weak.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold struggles above $4.150 amid geopolitical escalation

Gold struggles above $4,150 in the Asian session on Tuesday as elevated US Treasury yields and a hawkish Fed keep the US Dollar near its highest level since April 2025. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from Middle East conflicts continue to underpin the safe-haven buck, which, in turn, is seen as weighing on the bullion. Traders now look to US inflation figures for some impetus ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance on Friday.

Fed hold remains base case, September inflation surprise could push Dollar

The FOMC minutes read as hawkish last week, but they predate the soft September payrolls print and the modest inflation reads since then. We continue to think the Fed will hold rates this month, since we expect a moderate (i.e. 0.2% or less) monthly core print in this week's inflation report for September.

Earnings preview US and Europe: Can the stock market rally continue?

Stocks have been remarkably resilient this year. They have navigated geopolitical turmoil, an energy price spike and surging global bond yields which is rapidly pushing up the cost of borrowing. US blue chip stocks are now in their 4th year of a bull market, however, they now face their toughest test of Q4 so far, the latest earnings updates.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?