Oil, who is really selling? [Video]

The move lower since May certainly isn't being driven by traders like you and me alone.

Let me give you my theory.

Ask the average American what matters most to them financially on a day-to-day basis.

Bread?

Probably not.

Wine?

Definitely not.

The price of petrol at the pump?

Absolutely.

For most Americans, fuel prices are one of the most visible measures of the economy.

Following the recent geopolitical tensions, Oil prices initially surged.

Politically, that's never a comfortable place to be.

With the US midterm elections on the horizon, keeping fuel prices under control is likely to be an important objective for any administration.

Whether that has influenced broader market sentiment or policy decisions is something every trader can make their own mind up about.

One thing I learnt during my years on institutional dealing room floors is that markets are influenced by far more than just retail traders.

Large institutions, major funds, producers, consumers and governments can all have an impact on price.

We, as traders, don't need to know every reason.

We simply need to read the price action.

And that's where trading psychology comes in.

Oil held both the 200-day Moving Average and the 200-week Moving Average for a considerable time.

Last week both finally gave way.

For me, that changed the technical picture completely.

I use stop-and-reverse orders.

They work for me.

I don't have an ego.

Markets don't know I'm here.

They can go up.

They can go down.

I simply trade what I see.

Could Oil trade back towards its pre-March levels before the midterms?

I believe it's entirely possible.

Whether I'm right or wrong doesn't matter.

The market will decide.

My job is simply to listen.

This is not investment advice.

My Money. My Risk.