Oil ($CL_F) impulsive Wave structure suggests further losses

Elliott Wave Forecast Team ElliottWave-Forecast.com

The short‑term Elliott Wave view on Oil indicates that after spiking to $119.48 in response to the war with Iran, prices have moved sideways for several months. The initial decline from that peak to $76.73 on March 11, 2026 appeared impulsive and likely completed wave (A). Following that move, Oil consolidated in a triangle‑like structure until recently. Within this formation, wave (B) was identified at $109.62, as illustrated in the one‑hour chart.

From that level, Oil resumed lower in wave (C). However, a decisive break below the $76.73 low of wave (A) remains necessary to confirm this bearish view. Down from $109.62, wave ((i)) ended at $105.65, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $109.2. Oil then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards $96.94, followed by a bounce in wave ((iv)) that ended at $102.66. The market is now expected to push to a few more lows to complete wave ((v)), thereby finishing wave 1 of a higher degree.

Once wave 1 concludes, Oil should rally in wave 2 to correct the cycle from the May 19, 2026 high. This correction is anticipated to unfold in 3 or 7 swings before the broader downtrend resumes. As long as the pivot at $109.62 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring further downside. The structure highlights a mature bearish cycle, with near‑term risks skewed toward continuation of weakness rather than sustained recovery.

Light Crude Oil (CL_F) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

CL_F Elliott Wave video:

Author

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

ElliottWave-Forecast.com

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Gains remain capped by $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus attention on the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline as the US Dollar alternates gains with losses at the end of the week.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Weekly focus – The hawks set the tone

Risky assets came under pressure this week as energy prices kept creeping higher and the ECB surprised the markets with a hawkish tone. The price of Brent crude touched USD 110 per barrel on Thursday night, highest since mid-May, as news emerged that the Yemeni Houthis had reached control of key port cities and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.