Oil ($CL_F) impulsive Wave structure suggests further losses

Elliott Wave Forecast Team ElliottWave-Forecast.com

The short‑term Elliott Wave view on Oil indicates that after spiking to $119.48 in response to the war with Iran, prices have moved sideways for several months. The initial decline from that peak to $76.73 on March 11, 2026 appeared impulsive and likely completed wave (A). Following that move, Oil consolidated in a triangle‑like structure until recently. Within this formation, wave (B) was identified at $109.62, as illustrated in the one‑hour chart.

From that level, Oil resumed lower in wave (C). However, a decisive break below the $76.73 low of wave (A) remains necessary to confirm this bearish view. Down from $109.62, wave ((i)) ended at $105.65, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $109.2. Oil then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards $96.94, followed by a bounce in wave ((iv)) that ended at $102.66. The market is now expected to push to a few more lows to complete wave ((v)), thereby finishing wave 1 of a higher degree.

Once wave 1 concludes, Oil should rally in wave 2 to correct the cycle from the May 19, 2026 high. This correction is anticipated to unfold in 3 or 7 swings before the broader downtrend resumes. As long as the pivot at $109.62 remains intact, rallies are expected to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring further downside. The structure highlights a mature bearish cycle, with near‑term risks skewed toward continuation of weakness rather than sustained recovery.

Light Crude Oil (CL_F) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

CL_F Elliott Wave video:

Author

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

ElliottWave-Forecast.com

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD looks inconclusive near 1.1420

EUR/USD trades in a tight range in the low 1.1400s on Tuesday, struggling to gain momentum amid an equally absence of clear direction in the US Dollar (USD). Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict is capping the pair’s upside, while traders avoid taking significant positions ahead of Thursday’s ECB gathering.

Gold shows signs of life; focus is back to $4,100

Gold gains ground on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s pessimism and advancing toward the $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP extends recovery as on-chain activity grows

Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.