Morning briefing: Euro is bearish below 1.0965

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has moved up well above 102 and could test 103-103.50 before coming off while Euro is bearish below 1.0965 for a fall towards 1.0850/1.08. EURJPY is headed towards its upper end of the 154-158 range while USDJPY is expected to fall on testing 144/145. Aussie can rise towards 0.68 but Pound may dip within the 1.2550-1.28 region. USDCNY needs to break past 7.15/16 to maintain its bullishness, else would be vulnerable to see the lower levels of 7.12-7.10 soon. USDRUB could test 91 soon. USDINR tested 82.90 before rising back. There could be some chances of a decline from 83.15/20 again. EURINR is bearish while below 91.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly but are unlikely to sustain. We expect the yields to see more fall in the coming days. The German yields have bounced back well from their support. If this sustains further rise is possible this week. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained lower but stable. Outlook is bearish to see more fall from here.

Dow Jones and DAX outlook is bullish while above the support 37000-36900 and 16600-16500 respectively. Nifty remain bullish for a test of its immediate resistance. Shanghai is attempting to break below the support at 2925. Nikkei is bearish while below the resistance at 33000-33500.

Crude prices have come down from levels below their key resistance and have scope to fall from here. Gold can be range bound for a while with a bearish view. Silver looks bearish while below 24.50. Copper can test its lower end of the range before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas tested its key resistance as expected and has dipped from there.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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