Morning briefing: EUR/USD may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.1500

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

With crude prices falling sharply by around $10/barrel, there can be some easing in the currency markets as the Dollar Index holds stable around 101. While the index may trade within 101.50-100.70 region for a while, Euro may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.15 while above 1.1370/1.14. USDJPY can dip to 162.70 before a slow rise towards 165 resumes. Aussie looks stable while Pound has scope to rise to 1.34/35 while above immediate support at 1.33. EURINR can trade within 109.5-110.50 while USDCNY can trade within 6.75-6.7850 for some time. USDINR could have scope to dip to 96.20-96.00 while below 97-96.75. The dip can come on the back of a decline in crude prices from levels above $100 to almost $90 now (Brent).

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. A strong fall in oil price after the news that the US-Iran peace talk can restart has dragged the yields lower. There is room to fall more to test their support. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible. The German Yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around 6.85%. It can rise and test its resistance first and then resume the downtrend.

Dow and DAX have bounced from key support and can remain within the 52000-53000 and 24700-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty has recovered from recent lows and can rise towards 24000-24100 in the near term. Nikkei has rebounded, but while below 66000, the downside towards 63000 remains intact. Shanghai has also recovered, but while below 3900, it remains vulnerable to a pullback towards 3750-3700.

Brent and WTI can decline further towards $85 and $80 respectively before entering a sideways phase. Gold continues to hold above the key $4000 support, keeping the broader $4000-$4200 range intact. Silver is likely to remain range-bound between $55 and $65. Copper has found support near $6.30 and can rise towards $6.50 if this level holds. Natural Gas remains range-bound within the $2.80-$3.00 range.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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