KR, JP tech bounce back, OpenAI joins mega-IPO queue, CN Trade surplus back $105B

General trend and developments

-Kospi index gained back most of its -8% losses yesterday, Samsung and SK Hynix leading the charge following the recovery in US chips stocks overnight. Chip-relateds also bounced back in Japan, helping the Nikkei to gain back over 2%.

-No rebound for Australia, with the nearly "AI-free" ASX index suffering its third session of losses.

-Open AI submitted a confidential S-1 for its own mega-IPO, but has not yet decided on timing, commenting publicly “It may be a while”. Reportedly to launch a tender sale of share in the coming weeks ahead of the IPO itself.

-In further AI news, following Anthropic’s “recursive self-coding” warning to the world last week amid increased chatter about US govt “golden shares” in US frontier models, the White House said to now be negotiating a federal preemption of state AI laws.

-China May trade balance in dollar figures rose back up to >$105B, with exports up nearly 20%, beating expectations amid demand for high-tech electronics and AI-related. Higher global commodity prices also boosted imports as soybean imports rose in May, perhaps influenced at the back end of the month by Trump’s Summit with Pres Xi in mid-May. Crude oil imports fell significantly although balanced out somewhat by a rise in natural gas imports. Rare earth exports from China ticked up slightly while overall rare-earth exports to Japan fell more than -80% y/y. Reports earlier today said US is urging China to resume rare earth supplies to Japan.

-Jun BOJ OIS chances still around a 92% for a hike next week (June 16th). Other rate decisions in Asia next week include Australia’s RBA (also June 16th), Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia central banks - with the US Fed meeting also scheduled for next Wednesday, local time; (The first FOMC to be led by new Chair Kevin Walsh).

-Australia Business Confidence for May off its worst levels but still firmly negative while AU June Consumer Confidence almost back to its Covid lows again (as per April’s reading). Perhaps cementing in market expectations of no change for the RBA rate decision next Tuesday.

-New Zealand’s first quarter Manufacturing Activity much higher than expected, attributed to rate cuts finally taking effect, stronger export demand along with new orders having increased this year.

-Pfizer warned that China is becoming a “scientific superpower” and within five years Pfizer’s future competitor may be Chinese mega players rather than Lilly or AstraZeneca.

-China PBOC continued to fix a strong Yuan, now strongest since Feb 14th, 2023.

-Note that French Pres Macron will host a video call between G7 Nations and China on Thursday, June 11th, 2026 on the topic “addressing global trade imbalances”. Comes head of G7 summit in Evian, France, June 15-17, which Trump has confirmed he will be attending.

-US equity FUTs +0.3% to +0.5% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

-Tue Jun 9th: (Tue night, US Apr Trade Balance).

-Wed Jun 10th: JP May PPI, CN May CPI/PPI, (Wed night, US May CPI, CA Rate Decision).

-Thu Jun 11th: KR May unemployment rate, (Thu night, ECB Rate Decision, US May PPI).

-Fri Jun 12th: UK Apr GDP, (Fri night, US Jun Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment).

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Jun 8th: Australia.

-Fri Jun 12th: Philippines.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens -1.1% at 8,532.

-(AU) Australia May NAB Business Confidence: -14 v -24 prior.

-(AU) Australia Jun Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: 80.6 v 83.0 prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand Q1 Manufacturing Activity Q/Q: 2.8% v 0.6% prior.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens +0.5% at 3,977; (HK) Hang Seng opens -0.4% at 24,551.

-(CN) China May Trade Balance: $105.4B v 92.3Be.

-(CN) China May Trade Balance (CNY-denominated): 724.0B v 585.7B prior.

-(CN) China fiscal push to accelerate local bond issuance in Jun – China Securities Journal.

-(CN) China to issue third tranche of CNY15B Yuan-denominated bonds in HK on Tue, Jun 16th, 2026.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.8147 v 6.1898 prior (strongest since Feb 14th, 2023).

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY153B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY153B v injects CNY208B prior.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens +1.0% at 64,635.

-(JP) Japan May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prior.

-(JP) Japan Econ Min Kiuchi: Capex continues to pick up, economy continuing to recover moderately.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: Possible to balance fiscal sustainability with measures to boost economy; No change in stance that we are prepared to take 'decisive action' (on Yen FX).

-(JP) Companies in Japan have a preference to hold cash in time deposits - Nikkei.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens +4.8% at 7,846.

-(KR) South Korea Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.8% v 1.7% advance; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6% advance.

-(KR) North Korea and China agree to expand cooperation and safeguard sovereignty - South Korea press.

-(KR) Korea exchange activates 5-minute sidecar to halt program trading for Kospi FUTs after 5% gains.

-(KR) Financial press comments on record retail margin debt in South Korea.

Other Asia

-(PH) Philippines Apr Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 5.0% prior.

-(ID) Investors said to be ‘losing faith’ in Indonesia President Subianto, notes the ongoing fiscal concerns – financial press.

-(ID) Indonesia Finance Minister: Synergy between fiscal and monetary policies will be necessary to manage inflation, stabilize commodity prices, especially food and energy.

North America

-(US) President Trump: Ongoing negotiations with Iran; Could have an idea for Iran deal within a few days; Blockade continues to hold; We're in final throes of what will be a good deal.

-(US) White House negotiates federal preemption of state AI laws - Axios.

-(US) Pres. Trump: Israel and Iran must immediately stop “shooting” [US market close].

-(US) May NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations 3.5% v 3.6% prior; Affirms 5-year inflation at 3.0% [US market close].

-(US) Trump Admin said to be urging China to resume rare earth supplies to Japan - Nikkei.

-(US) Decision Desk HQ: Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton projected to advance for California Governor in November, 2026.

-(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Tropical Storm Boris closing in on the Southern Mexican coastline.

-(CA) Canada makes available up to C$150M under a new loan program for airlines to combat rising fuel prices - press [US market close].

-(CA) Reportedly Canada considers restricting social media usage for children under the age of 16 - press [US market close].

-(MX) Mexico extends anti-dumping duty on China stainless steel sink imports - press [US market close].

-(CL) Chile May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.2%e [US market close].

Europe

-(RU) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: Russia and Belarus constantly ready to use all available means, including nuclear, to ensure security - interview with Izvestia newspaper.

-(UK) Confederation of British Industry (CBI) downgraded its 2026 UK GDP growth outlook to 1.1%.

-(UK) Apr BRC Like-For-Like Sales Y/Y: 3.4% v 0.8%e (strongest percentage increase since April, 2025).

-(NL) Netherlands May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y (final): 3.5% v 3.5% prelim.

-(NL) Netherlands Apr Consumer Spending Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9% prior.

-(IE) Ireland May Construction PMI: 50.2 v 47.1 prior (moves back into expansion after one month contraction).

Middle East

-(IR) Iran IRGC declares end of military operations against Israel - Iranian press citing IRGC statement [US market close].

-(IL) Israel PM Netanyahu: Iran and Hezbollah are weaker, but the war has not yet ended; Israel will hold its fire in Iran for now [US market close].

-(IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) May Minutes: Decision to cut Base Rate by 25bps was unanimous [US market close].

-(IL) Israel Defense Min Katz: Israel rejects Iran's warning to not strike Lebanon [US market close].

-(IR) US Pres Trump: We'll declare 'total' victory on Iran in two weeks; Victory will come 'very soon'.

-(IR) Earlier on Mon, a US Army Apache helicopter went down ‘near’ the Strait of Hormuz, 2 crew members were rescued safely - NYT.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +2.3%; ASX 200 -0.1%; Hang Seng -0.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.6%; Kospi +7.5%;

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.3%; Nasdaq100 +0.5%; DAX -0.1%; FTSE100 flat.

EUR 1.1549-1.1527; JPY 160.28-160.13; AUD 0.7060-0.7034; NZD 0.5830-0.5799.

Gold +0.1% at $4,333/oz; BTC +0.7% at $63,225; Crude Oil -1.1% at $90.23/bbl; Copper +0.1% at $6.3370/lbs.