Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD reaches lower lows ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $1,817.83

Market players remain cautious ahead of the United States monthly employment report.
Government bond yields are now stable after peaking at multi-year highs.
XAU/USD resumed its decline near $1,800, buyers out of the picture for now.

Spot Gold trades near a fresh muti-month low of $1,813 a troy ounce, with XAU/USD down for a ninth consecutive day. The bright metal is unable to attract buyers despite extreme overbought US Dollar conditions. The Greenback lost momentum on Wednesday and remained in corrective mode on Thursday, posting modest losses after reaching multi-month highs across the FX board. Still, the USD corrective decline has been uneven, mostly as investors remain cautious.

Market players are concerned persistent inflationary pressures, and a tight labor market will push the Federal Reserve (Fed) into additional monetary tightening, with the attendant risk of an economic setback. Hawkish comments from Fed officials this week, and mixed signs from the employment sector maintained the fears alive ahead of the release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report. The country is expected to have added 178K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen contracting to 3.7% from the current 3.8%.

Ahead of the event, US Treasury yields stabilized following rallies to record peaks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note currently stands at 4.72%, down from a 16-year high of 4.88%, while the 2-year note offers 5.02% after soaring to 5.20% mid-September. Softer Treasury yields prevent the US Dollar from rallying in the near term.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD is bearish, according to technical readings in the daily chart. Indicators have extended their slides in extremely oversold territory without signs of downward exhaustion. The Momentum indicator accelerates south at around 94, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands at 18. At the same time, moving averages gain downward strength far above the current level, reflecting sellers’ dominance.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk also skews to the downside. A bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) contained buyers intraday and currently acts as dynamic resistance at around $1,824.10. Meanwhile, technical indicators turned south after correcting north within negative levels, also reflecting that XAU/USD is under bears’ control.

Support levels: 1,804.70 1,792.10 1,779.85

Resistance levels: 1,824.10 1,833.35 1,845.20

View Live Chart for XAU/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold sticks to modest losses; seems vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold extends its intraday retracement slide from a one-week high, hitting a fresh daily low around $4,170 during the early European session. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after a modest downtick amid the US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, which, in turn, is seen as weighing on the non-yielding bullion.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI defends $0.0800 support as selling pressure mounts

Pi Network is trading in the red on Monday, hovering above $0.0800 as selling pressure mounts. PI token’s speculative demand is easing, with Open Interest below $9 million despite rising social chatter, hinting at panic-driven buzz among investors. The technical outlook for PI suggests a bearish bias, with the risk of breaking below the $0.0800 support level.

USD/INR: Deep in red below 96.00 as RBI rescues Indian Rupee

After opening significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, the Indian Rupee (INR) clings to recovery gains near 95.80. The pair remains undermined by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) fresh measures to curb US Dollar demand, which has brought relief for the Indian currency.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?