Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers still hopeful ahead of US jobs data, Fed

Gold is testing bullish commitments at around the $4,200 mark early Tuesday, as the recent trade range gets squeezed in the lead-up to Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) showdown.  

Gold awaits the Fed for a clear directional impetus

Gold buyers are trying their luck for the third consecutive day, coming up for some air amid the latest tariff threats by US President Donald Trump, which fuels a renewed downtick in the US Dollar (USD).

Trump said that he will impose severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if he deems it necessary to boost domestic production, per Reuters. Meanwhile, Trump also threatened to impose ‌a 5% tariff on Mexico if it doesn't immediately provide additional water to help US farmers.

Traders also assess the impact of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that hit the northeastern coast of Japan on Monday, allowing the safe-haven Gold to find some demand.

However, buyers remain wary and refrain from placing any big bets on the bright metal as the Fed is set to begin its two-day monetary policy meeting later in the day.

Markets are speculating that the US central bank could deliver a hawkish message after delivering the expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to 3.5%-3.75%.

This narrative seemed to have powered the recent advance in US Treasury bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year yields sitting above the 4% key level. The uptick in the US Treasury bond yields drove the USD higher alongside on Monday, rendering as negative for Gold.

Looking ahead, Gold traders will closely scrutinize the JOLTS Job Openings data for September and October, which will likely provide fresh insights on the health of the US labor market and the Fed’s path forward on rates next year. Any meaningful deviations from the expectations could trigger a big reaction in Gold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,195.06. The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) advance, with the shorter ones positioned above the longer ones and price holding above all of them, reinforcing a bullish backdrop. The 21-day SMA stands at $4,150.88 and offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 59.06, positive and below the overbought threshold. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 acts as initial resistance, with the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 above; a sustained break could extend the recovery toward the latter.

Momentum remains aligned to the upside as the price holds above its rising averages. The 50-day SMA at $4,090.76 offers follow-up support, while the 100-day SMA at $3,792.49 and the 200-day SMA at $3,515.38 underpin the broader trend. RSI stays above 50 and supports the bullish bias, though a push toward 70 would warn of overbought conditions. Overall, dips could be contained by these ascending SMAs, keeping the path of least resistance pointing higher.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)