Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD buyers still hopeful ahead of US jobs data, Fed

Gold keeps its range trade intact around $4,200 as the Fed’s two-day monetary policy meeting begins later on Tuesday.
US Dollar loses ground with Treasury bond yields even as the mood turns cautious.
Gold’s daily chart shows that the bull-bear tug-of-war will likely continue ahead of US jobs data.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold is testing bullish commitments at around the $4,200 mark early Tuesday, as the recent trade range gets squeezed in the lead-up to Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) showdown.

Gold awaits the Fed for a clear directional impetus

Gold buyers are trying their luck for the third consecutive day, coming up for some air amid the latest tariff threats by US President Donald Trump, which fuels a renewed downtick in the US Dollar (USD).

Trump said that he will impose severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if he deems it necessary to boost domestic production, per Reuters. Meanwhile, Trump also threatened to impose ‌a 5% tariff on Mexico if it doesn't immediately provide additional water to help US farmers.

Traders also assess the impact of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that hit the northeastern coast of Japan on Monday, allowing the safe-haven Gold to find some demand.

However, buyers remain wary and refrain from placing any big bets on the bright metal as the Fed is set to begin its two-day monetary policy meeting later in the day.

Markets are speculating that the US central bank could deliver a hawkish message after delivering the expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to 3.5%-3.75%.

This narrative seemed to have powered the recent advance in US Treasury bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year yields sitting above the 4% key level. The uptick in the US Treasury bond yields drove the USD higher alongside on Monday, rendering as negative for Gold.

Looking ahead, Gold traders will closely scrutinize the JOLTS Job Openings data for September and October, which will likely provide fresh insights on the health of the US labor market and the Fed’s path forward on rates next year. Any meaningful deviations from the expectations could trigger a big reaction in Gold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,195.06. The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) advance, with the shorter ones positioned above the longer ones and price holding above all of them, reinforcing a bullish backdrop. The 21-day SMA stands at $4,150.88 and offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 59.06, positive and below the overbought threshold. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 acts as initial resistance, with the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 above; a sustained break could extend the recovery toward the latter.

Momentum remains aligned to the upside as the price holds above its rising averages. The 50-day SMA at $4,090.76 offers follow-up support, while the 100-day SMA at $3,792.49 and the 200-day SMA at $3,515.38 underpin the broader trend. RSI stays above 50 and supports the bullish bias, though a push toward 70 would warn of overbought conditions. Overall, dips could be contained by these ascending SMAs, keeping the path of least resistance pointing higher.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Economic Indicator

JOLTS Job Openings

JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

AUD/USD defends 0.7000 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD is defending 0.7000 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on an October Fed rate hike. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the pair ahead of Tuesday's RBA policy announcements.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold sheds 3%, eyeing $4,100 on renewed US-Iran risks

Gold is falling hard at the start of a new week, targeting $4,100 for the first time in eight weeks. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar hold firm, particularly after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. These factors weigh heavily on the bullion.

Zcash risks a decline below $1,500 as bullish momentum eases

Zcash price hovers below $1,550 on Monday, extending losses after a 4% decline the previous day. Institutional interest in the privacy coin holds firm, recording over $35 million in inflows last week, while retail speculation takes a hit, with ZEC futures Open Interest down around 10% in 24 hours.

Data back in the driver’s seat this week

Markets will look for fresh evidence of a hot US economy from this week as September figures start to flow in. Upside surprises in jobs data could take rate hike pricing for the October FOMC above 20bp. It’s not our baseline though, and we expect some stabilisation with modest downside risks for USD in the coming days. We expect a hawkish hike by the RBA tomorrow.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.