France’s 10-year spread tests 175bps hours before Moody’s

EU mid-market update: France’s 10-year spread tests 175bps hours before Moody’s as the French manufacturing PMI back into contraction and business expectations hit a six-and-a-half-year low; SpaceX’s $40B AI debt deal prices near 8.3% and OpenAI’s round slips to $1.25T from $1.4T; UK GfK confidence records its largest fall since April 2020.

The brief

- French sovereign stress is the dominant theme: the OAT-Bund spread sits near 170bp, the widest since 2011, as Bunds rally ahead of Moody’s review after tonight’s close, while France’s composite PMI slumped to 48.4 and French banks trade lower premarket. Thursday’s defensive rotation hit the AI complex hard, with Nasdaq futures down about 2.9% and the 10-year Treasury posting its biggest one-day drop since SVB to below 5%. The AI buildout is meanwhile running into limits on land, power and financing: Amazon abandoned its Ashburn data-centre plan, SpaceX’s $40B debt is pricing near 8.3%, and OpenAI’s round is coming in below its pitch. With Brent near $113, refiners like Valero are capturing record margins while airlines and autos absorb the cost, and euro-area PMIs showing slowing growth with rising input costs leave the ECB facing stagflation on Oct 29. Elsewhere, UK consumer confidence collapsed ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, a possible Ukraine deal could reopen Russian gas to Europe, and this week’s earnings calls suggest supply shortages rather than volume booms are driving pricing strength into the Oct 27-28 FOMC.

Observations in full

- Thursday turned into a defensive rotation and a duration bid, and the AI complex paid for it. Nasdaq futures settled about 2.9% lower at 29,142 and S&P futures about 1.2% lower at 7,705. VIX rose 16% to 19.38. Breadth split along sector lines: NYSE advancers led 1.3:1 on volume 14% above average, while Nasdaq decliners led 1.4:1. Staples, telecoms, healthcare and utilities absorbed the flows, and P&G had its best session in more than five years after organic growth of 4.0% against 2.4% expected, with volumes +2.4%. Meta reversed its after-hours gain to trade -2.5% premarket. Lam fell 7.5% premarket, IBM 5.5% and Tesla 4%, and AMAT and Teradyne fell 4.5% in sympathy. The Treasury 10-year fell back below 5%, and gold broke below $4,000/oz overnight. Asia stabilized: Kospi recovered from a -2.4% open to close +0.3%, Shanghai rose 0.9% and the Hang Seng 0.8%, while the Nikkei slipped 0.3%. US futures are flat.

- The French spread remained in focus. The OAT-Bund 10-year spread recently tested 175bps on Thursday and is about 170bps at the 02:30 ET check, the widest since late 2011 (**Note: record gap at 200bps during the GFC). The OAT itself is lower at 5.03%, while Bunds rallied to 3.34% from 3.41%. France now pays about 48bps over Italy and 67bps over Greece. Moody’s reviews its Aa3 negative rating after the European close tonight. A one-notch cut to A1 would still leave Moody’s above Fitch and Scope at A+, so a cut matters less than any move to a two-notch outlook. The flash PMIs show the real-economy cost: the composite fell to 48.4 against 50.3 expected, services to 48.4, sales volumes fell at the fastest pace since May, and the 12-month expectations index dropped to a six-and-a-half-year low on 2027 election fears. Macron moved to ban non-union protests after 2.7k people were taken into custody since Saturday. Vinci quantified a proposed infrastructure tax at about €450M, said it is prefunding its 2027 bond maturities and cited “uncertainty over refinancing conditions”. SocGen is -1.5% premarket and BNP and Crédit Agricole -1%. The ECB’s TPI is discretionary and requires “sound fiscal policies”, a test France currently fails on its own terms.

- Thursday also showed the AI buildout running into three limits at once, in land, power and money. Amazon withdrew its plan for four data centres, more than 800,000 sq ft, on the 122-acre former GWU campus in Ashburn. It paid about $427M in February, roughly four times assessed value, and will now give 25 acres worth about $65M to Loudoun County and accept rezoning that bans data centres on the site. Loudoun took 39% of its budget from data-centre taxes in fiscal 2026, yet it is voting next month on a one-year pause on approvals. When the world’s densest data-centre county refuses Amazon, the binding constraint is local consent, not chips or capital. That makes Bloom Energy’s on-site fuel cells a way around the bottleneck rather than a niche product. Bloom posted raised its FY26 guidance for the third time to $4.4-4.6B, about +122%. On the call it said Nebius’s first power block was ready within five months of signing, and it expects utilities to buy fuel cells to avoid transmission queues. The shares still fell 5% after hours on unquantified backlog and -$27M of operating cash flow, so fast power is in demand but has to show up in cash. Money is the third limit, and it has not got cheaper for AI borrowers. On closing-yield data, the Treasury 10-year fell 19.3bps to 4.952%, the largest one-day drop since the March 10, 2023 SVB failure. Semafor reported SpaceX’s $40B debt deal, led by Goldman and Apollo, is finalizing at “sharply higher” rates: about 8.3% on the junior portion and 7.75% on the tranche backed by SpaceX’s own chips. The gap between the risk-free rate and what AI borrowers pay is widening even as Treasury yields fall. Behind-the-meter power is also a long position in US natural gas. Meta’s $355.7B of leases signed but not yet commenced shows how much of the buildout still depends on sites getting consent, power and financing.

- A Ukraine compromise formula is circulating, and one of its terms would reopen European gas. Reports citing The Economist said Putin “might” accept a US package. It includes Ukrainian withdrawal from the rest of Donbas, a Korean-style demilitarized zone, Article 5-style guarantees without NATO membership, EU accession for Ukraine, sanctions easing and resumed Russian gas supply to Europe. Trump personally called Musk, and Starlink service to Ukrainian forces was restored on Thursday. Moscow is reviewing an invitation to the G20, and the Kremlin says fuel output is rising and reserves are being rebuilt. The war continues on the ground: Russia struck a DTEK thermal plant, halting its operations, and hit a cargo vessel in the Black Sea. Kpler says the export disruption gave the wheat trade year its weakest start in more than a decade, with MENA most exposed.

- CNBC reported OpenAI is near a round of up to $30B at $1.25T, against the $1.4T it pitched, with commitments due by Oct 30. Some investors cited “indigestion”, and others told the FT they would rather see how Anthropic prices its IPO first. Meta’s 10-Q showed non-cancelable commitments up $105B in the quarter to $454.5B, with 2027 obligations at $121.4B. Leases signed but not yet commenced rose to $355.7B, and the filing warns the new Class C may trade at a discount, forcing more dilution per dollar raised. Nebius signed a $3.5B 364-day secured facility at SOFR+275bps, stepping up to 350bps: bridge money for long-lived GPUs. SK Hynix shelved the US IPO of Solidigm, once floated at up to $150B. Huang said neocloud demand is “off the charts”, and Bessent played down systemic AI risk.

- The euro-area flash PMIs combine slowing growth with re-accelerating costs, a bad mix a week before the ECB. The composite fell to 51.9 against 52.7, with services at 51.7 against 52.5, and S&P Global said it is consistent with 0.3% q/q GDP. Hiring is “close to stalling” while input costs are “rising sharply again” on energy, and firms are raising selling prices to protect margins. Germany’s manufacturing PMI beat at 54.2 against 53.5 on exports and defence and infrastructure orders, but the German composite slipped to 52.8 against 53.4. Advance consumer confidence fell to -17.9 against -17.0, and one-year inflation expectations held at 3.1%. Klingbeil said Berlin gains “no new fiscal room” for 2027, with federal tax revenue €3B below the May estimate. The data argue for an ECB hike on Oct 29 while France argues against one, a split the TPI conditionality cannot resolve.

- UK households took fright ahead of Wednesday’s Budget. GfK confidence fell to -24 against -14 expected, from -13, the largest monthly drop since April 2020 and the lowest reading since September 2024. September retail sales excluding fuel fell 0.7% against -0.1% expected, although August was revised up to +0.9%. The CBI’s total orders balance fell to -32 against -20. The 2031 linker auction cleared at a 1.141% real yield against 0.933% at the prior sale, with cover down to 3.99x. Gilt 10s closed at 5.33% from 5.38%. With CPI at 3.5% and input PPI at 8.3%, Healey is setting a Budget expected to include a bank levy as demand weakens, and the BoE meets on Nov 5. Housebuilders, retailers and domestic banks carry the direct exposure.

- SpaceX is moving from satellites to towers, which turns Starlink Mobile from a coverage add-on into a bid to become a fourth US carrier. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 US cell sites, with Crown Castle named in the talks and deals potentially worth billions. That is about half of the roughly 158,500 purpose-built US towers counted by the Wireless Infrastructure Association. It reverses the plan management described in August: small femtocells on rooftops next to existing Starlink dishes, with Shotwell saying SpaceX would not need “10 or many billions” upfront. The spectrum is already in place. The EchoStar purchase lifts SpaceX’s usable spectrum to about 65MHz from roughly 5MHz through carrier partners, and the Oct 8 deal for Grain Management’s nationwide 800MHz portfolio adds the low-band coverage satellites cannot deliver indoors. Bernstein has put a competitive standalone network at $50-130B, and the timing is awkward. For the towers it is a diversification story: carriers account for about 66% of SBA’s US revenue, about 75% of Crown Castle’s rental revenue and about 86% of American Tower’s US and Canada property segment, so a fourth large tenant lowers customer concentration. Verizon and AT&T fell on the report, while Crown Castle and American Tower rose. The Big Three now face a well-funded competitor that also controls a satellite layer they rent. The European read-across runs through radio vendors Nokia and Ericsson and tower owners Cellnex and INWIT. Huang’s claim at GTC Berlin that roughly 100,000 telco sites become a distributed AI network now has a US buyer for the sites, and the Starlink episode in Ukraine shows the political weight SpaceX would bring as a carrier.

- Washington is now treating refined-product supply as a defence matter. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to expand petroleum capacity, waived Section 303 limits and pledged $150M for refining. On Truth Social he claimed Iran is “making up fake hits, mines” to lift prices before the midterms, and that more oil now moves through Hormuz than before the war. Brent opened at $113.09 and WTI at $99.08, a spread of about $14. Valero shows where the rent sits: its refining margin was $39.24/bbl against $13.14 a year earlier, Gulf Coast refining income was $5.24B against $942M, and management said VLCC freight from the Gulf Coast to Asia is $30-35/bbl against about $5 in 2025. It sees no demand destruction, with wholesale gasoline +4% y/y. Elsewhere the costs are already landing. Snap-on missed as franchisees cut inventory on diesel prices, and American plans to “decelerate considerably” 2027 capacity. IAG and Lufthansa are -2.5% premarket and Air France-KLM -2%. Saudi Arabia issued early-warning alerts in Riyadh and Najran, and an oil spill has closed Umm Al Quwain’s coastline in the UAE.

- Japan crossed 2% while its bonds rallied. National CPI was 2.1%, the first reading above target in nine months, and the measure excluding fresh food and energy rose to 2.4% against 2.3%. Even so, JGB 10s rallied to 2.79% from 2.88% on safe-haven and credit demand. OIS prices only a 5.5% chance of an Oct 30 hike and 84% by December. Economy Minister Kiuchi said conditions are not met to declare an end to deflation. Takaichi ordered a review of gasoline subsidies from as early as December, which adds headline inflation the BOJ will have to look through, and USD/JPY touched a three-week high of 156.53. In China, a 30-year auction drew a record bid-to-cover at 2.06%. The MOF will fast-track 2027 local debt quotas for January, and the NPC Standing Committee meets Nov 2-6 to review a State Council finance report. Elsewhere in the region, Australia’s services PMI fell to 47.8 from 51.9 on energy and freight costs, and ANZ now sees the RBNZ hiking at each of its next three meetings.

- Unauthorized AI agents have reached the US payment system. Axios reported that JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have found third-party AI agents operating inside customer accounts, some taking actions customers did not instruct. Zip lost 50% after a US fraud event cost $10.1M and lifted net bad debts to 1.97% of TTV from 1.65%. Quest Diagnostics disclosed unauthorized access to patient records. Japan is setting up a government white-hat hacker team in November after the PHP incident. Operational and fraud losses from agentic AI are becoming a line item for banks, BNPL lenders and their insurers before AI revenue is.

- US trade-security policy widened on two fronts relevant to Europe. Trump invoked Section 232 on wind-turbine imports, citing cybersecurity and radar interference. That is a direct risk to the US order books of Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and Nordex, and the OEMs will now be asked about the timing of any tariff. Separately, the Treasury proposed adding biotechnology to its outbound investment restrictions under the COINS Act, which complicates US capital for Chinese biotech and puts the licensing pipelines of European pharma under review. Earlier Taiwan entity listings and the Nov 18 start of China’s MOFCOM controls keep the supply chain on both sides of the tariff.

- Europe’s earnings split three ways: defense and building materials beat, autos fail, luxury stays mixed. Saab’s order intake more than tripled to SEK65.8B and organic sales rose 30.6%. Its CEO said he “can’t see any levelling off” in demand. Lockheed’s backlog hit a record $292B on an 850-jet F-35 agreement. Safran plans to double missile-engine output in Texas, and its civil aftermarket grew 17% in dollars. Holcim raised its recurring EBIT growth guidance to 10-12%. Volvo Cars posted an operating loss of SEK3.7B on revenue of SEK66.9B against SEK73.7B expected, with FCF of -SEK8.9B, cut 2,500 jobs and said Q4 volumes remain “severely challenged”. It has more than 50,000 EX60 orders but has built only about 5,000. Kering said Chinese and US customer growth each slowed about 5 points from Q2, while L’Oréal’s like-for-like growth of 7.7% beat about 5.4%. Intrum is -6% on a SEK1.5B German goodwill impairment.

- TTN Note on earnings calls this week: management teams described a strong October, and almost every source of that strength was a shortage. Knight-Swift called the freight upcycle supply-driven, as third-party logistics capacity tightened again in October. Triumph Financial, which factors invoices for small trucking fleets, said October average invoice prices kept rising. Snap-on’s van franchisees cut tool inventory to hold cash against diesel. Those are the owner-operators leaving the road, and Union Pacific’s quarter-to-date volumes running at double-digit growth and Norfolk Southern’s truck-to-rail conversions show where their freight is going. Valero cited October gasoline backwardation and wholesale gasoline +4% y/y, and Packaging Corp called containerboard “very tight” heading into the seasonal pickup. Dow said September polyethylene inventories fell more than 400M lbs. Several of these calls were tight markets passing on price rather than volume booms. The AI buildout runs through the same calls. Honeywell’s data-centre orders grew more than 100%. Rexel, a French electrical distributor, raised same-day sales growth to about 7% and reported no slowdown in October. Wyndham said infrastructure-related room demand accelerated, so crews building data centres and grid capacity are filling midscale hotels at +6% RevPAR. Consumer comments split by purchase size. Southwest has about 65% of Q4 revenue booked after record September RASM, while Tractor Supply reported caution on big-ticket items and Boston Beer depletions fell 5%. In luxury, Zegna said affluent Chinese buyers accelerated while aspirational demand stayed weak, Kering’s Chinese and US customer growth each slowed about 5 points from Q2, and Moncler blamed warm weather for late winter purchases. Hermès named Europe excluding France as its strong region, which puts the French unrest in the luxury numbers. CME’s Q4-to-date volume is running 17% above last year’s record quarter. The calls describe an economy in which falling capacity lifts prices, and that is the kind of demand the FOMC would hike into on Oct 28.

- Cross-asset: The French spread is now widening through Bund strength rather than OAT weakness, and that means Moody’s tonight, the Oct 27 budget vote and the Nov 5 strike will price against a flight-to-quality bid that also pulled Treasuries below 5% and JGBs to 2.79%. AI credit is pricing like high yield: SpaceX is paying about 8.3%, OpenAI’s round is 11% below its pitch and Nebius is borrowing for 364 days, a backdrop in which chip equipment trades poorly on in-line guidance. Oil profits are moving downstream to refiners, with Valero’s margin near $39/bbl and the DPA now directed at refining, while airlines and autos absorb the cost. The euro-area PMIs give the ECB stagflation on Oct 29, and the UK’s GfK collapse lands on Wednesday’s Budget. Today brings Moody’s on France sovereign rating after the close, the CBR rate decision, the US flash PMIs and next week’s $213B of 2-, 5-, 7-year and FRN Treasury supply; Brazil’s runoff on Sunday is polling 50-50, and the FOMC follows on Oct 27-28.

- Asia closed mixed with Shanghai outperforming +0.9%. EU indices -0.5% to -0.6%. US futures -0.4% to +0.3. Gold +0.0%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent +0.5%, WTI +0.8%; Crypto: BTC -0.2%, ETH 0.0%.

Asia

- Japan Sept National CPI Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e; CPI (ex-fresh Food/energy) Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e (**Note: Annual pace of inflation moves above target for the 1st time in 9 months).

- Japan Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 54.1 prior.

- Australia Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 v 49.6 prior.

Global conflict/tensions

- Iran warned that any renewed US or Israeli military campaign would trigger a broader response extending beyond military targets.

Europe

- UK Oct GfK Consumer Confidence: -24 v -14e (largest m/m decline since COVID-19 (Apr 2020).

Americas

- Close opinion poll ahead of the runoff in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday with Flavio Bolsonaro at 50% vs. Incumbent President Lula at 50% (**Note: Runoff election is Oct 25th).

Energy

- President Trump invoked Cold War era Defense Production Act for oil production, refining (**Note: Move would provide financial incentives for oil production, pipelines, refining operations, and fuel storage infrastructure).

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -0.44% at 10,677.54, DAX -0.49% at 25,247.63, CAC-40 -0.60% at 7,764.53, IBEX-35 -0.19% at 18,878.46, FTSE MIB -0.23% at 48,274.50, SMI -0.51% at 14,473.40, S&P 500 Futures -0.02%].

Market focal points/key themes: European bourses open broadly softer with the CAC 40 down 0.6% and the DAX off 0.5%, as a second straight session of haven demand drags the 10-year Bund yield to 3.31%, a near two-month low and about 14 bps lower on the week, while French 10-year OATs, up 22 bps this week and pinned above 5.00%, push the OAT-Bund spread toward 160 bps on street unrest and doubts over Paris narrowing a deficit running at 5.4% of GDP. Earnings dispersion is severe: Kering sinks about 11.5% as Gucci’s Q3 sales decline undercuts the turnaround thesis, and Lifco (-9.5%), Hiab (-8%) and Norsk Hydro (-7%) are punished for adverse mix, acquisition-flattered orders and higher energy and carbon costs. On the upside, Tomra jumps 10% on 72% adjusted EPS growth, Holcim adds 5.5% after lifting organic recurring-EBIT growth guidance to 10 to 12%, and Eni gains 3.5% on doubled Q3 adjusted EBIT, a €1.3B special dividend and a €3.8B buyback, with BP and Shell firmer as Brent holds above $114, while Renault and Stellantis (both about -2.5%) absorb read-across from Volvo Cars’ swing to a Q3 operating loss and 2,500 job cuts. UK data adds a domestic-demand leg, with September retail volumes down 0.4% m/m against a 0.1% consensus decline as mild weather hit clothing (-0.9%) and GfK confidence collapsing to -24 from -13 ahead of next week’s Budget, while money markets see the ECB holding its deposit rate at 2.50% next week but still price 80%+ odds of a December hike to 2.75% despite tightening periphery conditions.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Boohoo [BOO.UK] +4.0% (returned to statutory pretax profit for the first time in five years and expects year-end net debt to be negligible), Evolution [EVO.SE] +0.5% (Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA broadly matched expectations, supporting the shares in a weaker Nordic tape), Kering [KER.FR] -11.5% (Gucci’s Q3 sales decline undermined hopes that the flagship brand’s turnaround was gaining traction), Electrolux [ELUX-B.SE] -3.0% (adjusted operating profit beat forecasts, but guidance still points to negative North American volumes and an otherwise unchanged market outlook), Renault [RNO.FR] -2.5%, Stellantis [STLAM.IT] -2.5%, Continental [CON.DE] -2.0% (auto-sector pressure followed Volvo Cars’ swing to a Q3 operating loss and plan to cut 2,500 jobs amid weak Chinese and US demand).

Technology: Hexagon [HEXA-B.SE] -2.5% (shares sold off despite above-forecast Q3 revenue and EBITAC and five-year-high organic growth of 13%).

Telecom: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] +1.0% (Handelsbanken upgraded to Buy from Hold).

Energy: Eni [ENI.IT] +3.5% (Q3 adjusted EBIT doubled, cash-flow guidance rose, and the group announced a €1.3bn special dividend plus a larger €3.8bn buyback), BP [BP.UK] +2.0%, Shell [SHEL.UK] +1.5% (Brent climbed above $114 as escalating Middle East supply risks extended the oil-price surge).

Materials: Holcim [LHN.CH] +5.5% (raised 2026 recurring-EBIT organic-growth guidance to 10–12% after quarterly sales and profit beat expectations), Norsk Hydro [NHY.NO] -7.0% (Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose to NOK9.09bn, but Aluminium Metal volumes declined while energy and carbon costs increased), SCA [SCA-B.SE] -0.5% (traded marginally lower despite stronger-than-expected Q3 revenue and EBITDA).

Industrials/defence: Tomra Systems [TOM.NO] +10.0% (Q3 revenue rose 20%, adjusted EBITA increased 55% and adjusted EPS climbed 72%), Lifco [LIFCO-B.SE] -9.5% (Q3 reporting highlighted continuing demolition-robot weakness and an adverse product mix in Construction Equipment), Hiab [HIAB.FI] -8.0% (Q3 orders rose 26%, but acquisitions contributed significantly and 2026 guidance was merely maintained), Volvo [VOLV-B.SE] -3.0% (Q3 revenue missed forecasts while adjusted operating profit was only in line despite improved profitability), Trelleborg [TREL-B.SE] -3.0% (Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITA merely matched expectations despite a record margin), Saab [SAAB-B.SE] -1.0% (reversed an early gain despite Q3 sales and operating profit beating forecasts and order intake lifting backlog to SEK364bn).

Financial: Lancashire [LRE.UK] -2.5% (Barclays downgraded the insurer to Underweight).

Speakers

- France Trade Min Forissier was said to sekk US tariff exemption for Cognac and Champagne.

- Treasury Min Murray reiterated govt stance that fiscal rules underpinned economic stability; Focused on cost of doing business as well as cost of living.

- Russia Pres Putin said to "might" accept US-proposed Ukraine peace terms (**Note: US proposal to Russia for Ukraine peace talks said to include a Donbas demilitarized zone, sanctions easing, business deals, and resumed Russian gas supplies to Europe in exchange for Ukraine gaining EU membership and NATO-style security guarantees without alliance membership.

- Turkey Energy Min said to have agreed with Russia on diesel supplies.

- Japan PM Takaichi stated that would instruct industry minister to start conducting review of gasoline subsidies. Reports circulated that Japan was weighing phasing out gasoline subsidies from December as costs mount.

Currencies

- EUR/USD remained around the 1.12 level as concerns over French bond yields persisted. Generally softer EU PMI data for Oct provided another headwind for the EUR currency. Some analysts noted should the gap between 10-year German and French yields move beyond 200bps (currently around 170-175 area) the euro could see renewed losses.

- USD/JPY below the 157 level as reports circulated that the BOJ would maintain a continued fast pace of rate hikes given current price trends with Dec in focus. Dealers noted that the BOJ was likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at next week's meeting.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.32%, France 10-year Oat at 5.04% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.32%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.98%; 10-year JGB: 2.79%.

- French spread remained in focus. The OAT-Bund 10-year spread recently tested 175bps on Thursday and is about 170bps (**Note: record gap at 200bps during the GFC back in 2011).

Economic data

- (UK) Sept Retail Sales (ex-auto/fuel) M/M: -0.7% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.4%e.

- (UK) Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e.

- (DK) Denmark Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.9% prior.

- (FR) France Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 v 50.5e (1st contraction in 3 months); Services PMI: 48.4 v 50.7e; Composite PMI: 48.4 v 50.3e.

- (DE) Germany Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 53.5e (9th straight expansion); Services PMI: 51.7 v 52.5e; Composite PMI: 52.8 v 53.4e.

- (PL) Poland Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8% prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai Deliverable Copper Inventories (SHFE): 54.4K v 74.0K tons prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 52.8e (9th month of expansion); Services PMI: 51.7 v 52.5e; Composite PMI: 51.9 v 52.7e.

- (EU) Eurozone Sept Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year ahead CPI expectations: 3.1% v 3.1%e; 3-year ahead CPI Expectations: 2.9% v 2.9%e.

- (TW) Taiwan Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e.

- (TW) Taiwan Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 19.2% v 24.7%e.

- (UK) Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.8 v 51.8e (12th month of expansion); Services PMI: 53.1 v 51.8e; Composite PMI: 53.1 v 51.7e.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR330B vs. INR330B indicated in 2031 and 2066 bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.0B in I/L 2031, 2043 and 2058 Bonds.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £6.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0B, £3.0B and £2.0B respectively).

- 06:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the key one-week auction rate unchanged at 14.00%.

- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Oct 16th: No est v $726.0B prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept PPI M/M: No est v 2.8% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.5% prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Aug IGAE Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: 0.4%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.4% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Retail Sales M/M: +1.3%e v -0.7% prior; Retail Sales (ex-auto) M/M: +1.1%e v -0.7% prior.

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Oct Business Confidence: No est v -12.1 prior.

- 09:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 09:45 (US) Oct Preliminary S&P Manufacturing PMI: 55.5e v 55.9 prior; Services PMI: 58.0e v 58.8 prior; Composite PMI: 57.6e v 58.4 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence: 46.3e v 46.3 prelim.

- 11:00 (US) Oct Kansas City Fed Services Activity: No est v 0.0 prior.

- 12:00 (EU) Potential Sovereign ratings expected after European close (Moody’s on France; Fitch on Ireland).

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data.