DXY outlook: Dollar probes through key supports again as fresh optimism fades safe haven demand

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

The dollar came under increased pressure on Wednesday after fresh wave of optimism about a possible end of US-Iran war deflated safe-haven demand.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of Greenback against its six major peers, hit three-week low, on renewed probe through the trendline support (currently at $97.85), after several recent attacks failed to register clear break of the trendline.

Support is reinforced by the base of thick daily cloud and 50% retracement of $95.35/$100.48 rally) that add to its significance.

Sustained break lower is needed to confirm bearish signal and open way for continuation of the downtrend from $100.48 (2026 high, posted on Mar 31) and expose next target at $97.31 (Fibo 61.8%).

Caution on potential repeated failure at trendline support, though near-term focus is expected to remain at the downside, as daily studies are in bearish configuration (reinforced by the latest 20/200DMA and 20/100 DMA bear-crosses and falling 14-d momentum entering negative territory).

Also keep focus on dynamics of peace talks in the Middle East, as geopolitics remain one of key dollar drivers nowadays.

Res: 97.90; 98.20; 98.43; 98.52

Sup: 97.50; 97.31; 97.00; 96.56

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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