DXY outlook: Dollar probes through key supports again as fresh optimism fades safe haven demand

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

The dollar came under increased pressure on Wednesday after fresh wave of optimism about a possible end of US-Iran war deflated safe-haven demand.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of Greenback against its six major peers, hit three-week low, on renewed probe through the trendline support (currently at $97.85), after several recent attacks failed to register clear break of the trendline.

Support is reinforced by the base of thick daily cloud and 50% retracement of $95.35/$100.48 rally) that add to its significance.

Sustained break lower is needed to confirm bearish signal and open way for continuation of the downtrend from $100.48 (2026 high, posted on Mar 31) and expose next target at $97.31 (Fibo 61.8%).

Caution on potential repeated failure at trendline support, though near-term focus is expected to remain at the downside, as daily studies are in bearish configuration (reinforced by the latest 20/200DMA and 20/100 DMA bear-crosses and falling 14-d momentum entering negative territory).

Also keep focus on dynamics of peace talks in the Middle East, as geopolitics remain one of key dollar drivers nowadays.

Res: 97.90; 98.20; 98.43; 98.52

Sup: 97.50; 97.31; 97.00; 96.56

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.