Corporate earnings take center stage in absence of Middle East news

Asia market update: Corporate earnings take center stage in absence of Mid-East news as markets wait for outcome of US-IR talks; AMD + SpaceX to report Wed after the close.

General trend and developments

- WTI crude FUTs crept up +1.4% in Asia, just shy of $80/bbl, rubbing up against the highest point of the opening gap down on Monday morning as markets wait for any outcomes of Pres Trump’s promised direct talks with Iran on Monday. Trump warned that it is Iran’s “last chance” to make a deal. The only news out of the Middle East today being reports of a solitary incident of a vessel hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman.

- The respite in Iran news gave a chance to focus on corporate news and quarterly earnings; including HSBC (+1.4%), Saudi Aramco (+2%), Toyota (-1.5%), Mitsubishi Heavy (+7.5%), with SoftBank to come after the Tokyo close.

- Potential Hynix strike risk today, with its South Korean union digging in their heels on stock volatility amid bonus pay negotiations. At the same time waiting for BHP management / union bargaining being convened by the Australia Fair Work Commission.

- After today’s US close Palantir rocketed up +15% with its US-based commercial-based Rev +149% y/y, PLTR described the quarter as “otherworldly”. The stock had been down as much as -29% YTD at its worst point last week.

- SNAP also up >14% across the entire day’s trading, beating expectations across all financial and user growth metrics.

- AMD to come after the US close later today, along with SpaceX’s debut public-market earnings [which will trigger the first major share lock-up expiry for insiders). [SanDisk to report Wed].

- Amazon shares fell nearly -2% following Jeff Bezos’ $4B sale of nearly all of his original "founder's shares" dating back to Amazon's early days. (Note these shares do not carry special rights or extra voting privileges as Amazon operates under a single-class share structure].

- Updates, Outlooks and Presentations from Australia’s premier Mining Forum; (Diggers and Dealers, Aug 3-5).

- China stock traders reported to have cut their leveraged positions by 14% amid the tech sell off, while in South Korea leveraged ETF trading declined following curbs by the government on the volatile instruments.

- Japan Fin Min Katayama was mum on any further interventions that might have taken place yesterday (Monday), after overnight BOJ data suggested Japan's combined Thurs-Fri intervention was ~¥13.8T (~$88B), which would be more than the record ¥11.7T spent supporting the currency at end-April. [Note: Yesterday's BOJ accounts data due in a few hours].

- Today’s weak 10-year JGB auction, the first since Friday’s BOJ meeting and a hawkish Gov Ueda, saw the tail blow out to 46 bps and a bid-to-cover of only 2.56x. 10-year yields spiked as much as 5bps higher to 2.865%.

- South Korea headline CPI fell by more than expected as prices of petroleum products dropped -5.5%, although Core CPI saw its biggest rise since 2023.

- South Korea’s Central Bank (BOK) joined the gold-buying party of several peers in recent years, today purchasing its first gold since 2013, starting off with some spot ETF purchases “on a very small scale”, according to the BOK statement.

- Westpac ditched its call for further RBA hikes, with market probabilities now up to 97% for a hold in Australia on Aug 11th.

- India Central Bank (RBI) is also expected to hold at its rate decision tomorrow (Wed).

- US equity FUTs +0.2% to +0.3% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time-zone)

- Tue Aug 4th: (Tue night, US Jun Trade Balance, US Jun JOLTS).

- Wed Aug 5th: KR July USD FX Reserves, NZ Q2 Jobs, AU July S&P Mnfg/Svcs PMI, JP BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, JP July S&P Mnfg/Svcs PMI, CN July RatingDog Svcs PMI, ID Q2 GDP, IN Rate Decision, Global July Services PMI’s Day, EU Jun PPI, (Wed night, US July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US July S&P/ISM Svcs PMI).

- Thu Aug 6th: AU Jun Trade Balance, EU Jun Retail Sales.

- Fri Aug 7th: JP Jun Household Spending, PH Q2 GDP, CN July Trade Balance (Fri night, US July Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate).

Holidays in Asia this week

- No holidays in Asia this week.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- (AU) ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 9,024.

- (AU) Australia Jun Household Spending M/M: 0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.3%e.

- (AU) Australia July ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements M/M: 0.8% v -0.1% prior.

-(AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 74.7 v 71.2 prior.

-(AU) Australia ASIC: Proposes changes to simplify advertising framework for IPOs, by allowing offerors to communicate in controlled, flexible way.

-(AU) BHP.AU Follow up: Another formal meeting convened by Australia Fair Work Commission scheduled for next Tuesday Aug 4th, to progress bargaining.

-(NZ) Auckland Jul Avg House Price M/M: -0.5% v -4.3% prior - Barfoot.

-(NZ) New Zealand Ministry proposes probe into FMA conduct, culture.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens +0.2% at 3,816; (HK) Hang Seng opens +0.3% at 26,091.

-(CN) China stock traders cut leverage positions by 14% in July amid the tech sell-off - SCMP.

-(CN) China property market is set to recover further during H2, affirms policy support is likely to focus less on short-term stimulus and more on urban renewal – China Securities Times.

-(CN) China further tightens legal policy rules to guard against exit of rare earths, battery secrets - Hong Kong press.

-(CN) Experts reiterate China has scope to ease monetary policy – Chinese press.

-(CN) China is testing AI-powered patrol vessel in Shenzhen, the article notes the Haixun 14102 vessel – China Daily [update].

-(CN) China municipal borrower (LGFV) Luoyang Shangdu City Investment Co (Henan Province) says has enough funds to repay CNY1.08B in offshore notes due next week, even after bond sale postponed - US financial press.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7917 v 6.7898 prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY47B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY559B v drains CNY563B prior.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens +0.3% at 63,929.

-(JP) JAPAN SELLS ¥2.6T VS. ¥2.6T INDICATED IN 10-YEAR JGB BONDS; AVG YIELD: 2.8400% V 2.7920% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 2.56X V 3.13X PRIOR.

-(JP) BOJ data suggests Japan's Friday intervention was ¥5.3T v ~¥8.45T on Thursday - press [**Note: ~¥13.8T (~$88B) during last Thurs-Friday compares to Japan spent prior record ¥11.7T supporting the currency over the April 28–May 27 period] [EU market close].

-(JP) Japan July Monetary Base End of Period: ¥557.6T v ¥560.0T prior; Y/Y: -13.8% v -13.7% prior.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: Won't comment on effectiveness of joint intervention; Cannot comment on impact of FX interventions; US evaluates Japan's robust economic policy highly.

-(JP) Japan Chief Cab Sec Kihara: [Confirms] Japan to use ¥24.2B in reserve funds for Kumamoto earthquake relief.

-(JP) Japan Econ Min Kiuchi: Must be vigilant to likelihood pass-through of costs on food could proceed from Summer through Autumn; Pass-through of rising costs on goods prices has been limited so far.

-(JP) Japan 10-year JGB yield rises +4.5bps to 2.865% (post 10-year JGB auction).

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens +1.5% at 6,351.

-(KR) SOUTH KOREA JULY CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 3.0%E.

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): Begins first purchases of physical gold since 2013 - statement (update).

-(KR) Leveraged ETF trading declines in South Korea, cites the recently announced curbs by the government – US financial press.

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): August inflation expected to be higher, due to base effects - statement.

-(KR) South Korea Fin Min Koo: South Korea to work to improve structure, stability in the stock market - Cabinet Meeting.

-(KR) South Korea Fin Min: Will work to stabilize oil products, food prices (follows July CPI release).

-(KR) South Korea to announce home supply measures as soon as August, 2026; these measures are expected to focus on 3 areas, including accelerating the pace of approvals and permits - Maeil.

-(KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar on Kosdaq following Kosdaq 150 FUTs rising +6%, programme trading halted for five-minutes.

-(KR) 000660.KR South Korean Union and Co. to hold talks over bonus pay today - US financial press.

-(KR) North Korea: US warning on cyber threat is a political accusation aimed at tarnishing its image - KCNA.

Other Asia

-(ID) Indonesia Pres Prabowo considers permanent BI Governor aligned with his goals.

-(ID) Indonesia Fin Min Purbaya: May extend government fund placement in state banks to next year [2027].

-(PH) Philippines sees PHP48B annual net revenue gain from tax plan – US financial press [update].

-(TW) Taiwan Exchange eases disposition stock rules – Press [update].

-(IN) India banks and state firms said to raise up to $10B from global markets (time frame unspecified) - US financial press.

-(SG) Singapore to release Q2 GDP data on Aug 11th at 8am.

North America

-(US) Pres. Trump: Doesn't like that oil companies are making 'too much money,' specifically Exxon and Chevron; Reiterates oil firms should cut retail prices [US market close].

-(US) JULY ISM MANUFACTURING: 55.6 V 53.9E [US market close].

-(US) JULY FINAL S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.9 V 53.8E [US market close].

-(US) JUN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -0.1% V 0.2%E [US market close].

-(US) TREASURY QUARTERLY FINANCING ESTIMATES: TO BORROW $739B IN JULY-SEPT QUARTER, $68B more than estimated in May [US market close].

-(US) State of Texas Gov Abbott directs comprehensive data center audit; Projects failing to comply with PUCT, ERCOT requirements to be denied connection to Texas grid – press [US market close].

-(US) Stopgap funding measure clears Senate procedural hurdle.

-(US) HHS: Aware of 2 cyclosporiasis-related deaths from Michigan as part of Cyclospora multistate outbreak linked to Taylor Farms De Mexico iceberg lettuce.

-(US) Pres Trump will deliver remarks in Las Vegas at 04:30pm ET, Wednesday - White House.

-(US) AMZN CEO Jeff Bezos sells 15M common shares worth $4.07B - Filing.

Europe

-(DE) Germany July Retail Sales m/m: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 2.7%e [EU market close].

-(CH) Swiss July CPI M/M: -0.1% V -0.1%e; y/y: 0.4% v 0.4%e; CPI EU harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.1% prior; y/y: 0.7% v 0.7% prior; CPI core y/y: 0.3% v 0.3%e [EU market close].

-(NL) Netherlands Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prior [EU market close].

-(UK) Financial News notes the decline in Ballie Gifford UK’s AUM, at the end of Jun the co's AUM was about £197B.

-(UK) July Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 v 52.8e (lowest print since March) [EU market close].

-(EU) Euro Zone July Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 v 52.0e [EU market close].

-(DE) Germany July Final Manufacturing PMI: 52.2 v 52.2e (confirms 6th month of expansion) [EU market close].

-(UK) July Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 v 52.8e (lowest print since March) [EU market close].

-(FR) France July Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 v 50.0e (back into contraction) [EU market close].

-(RU) Russia July Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 v 50.3 prior [EU market close].

-(IT) Italy July Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 52.4e [EU market close].

-(ES) Spain July Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 v 50.5e (returns back to expansion) [EU market close].

-(CH) Swiss July PMI Manufacturing: 53.2 v 54.8e; Services PMI: 63.9 v 59.8 prior [EU market close].

-(IE) Ireland July PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 v 54.9 prior (19th month of expansion).

Middle East

-(IR) Pres. Trump: We'll find out today or tomorrow where we are with Iran talks; This is Iran's last chance for Iran to make a deal; Gulf nations wanted us to give talks a last chance; Phase one in talks are about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, possibly tomorrow [US market close].

-(IR) US officials say no new negotiations are planned between the US and Iran [despite Trump saying new Iran talks would begin Monday afternoon] - CBS [US market close].

-(IR) Pres. Trump: Calls on Iranian Leadership as 'unbelievably duplicitous!' Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished - Truth Social [US market close].

-(IR) UKMTO received report of an incident near Oman hit by unknown projectile [reportedly incident happened earlier Tues].

-(SA) Six Saudi-flagged supertankers with no cargo reportedly change course in Gulf of Aden and sail towards Southern Africa - press citing shipping traffic data [EU market close].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 -0.3%; ASX 200 +1.3%; Hang Seng -0.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.2%; Kospi -0.9%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%; DAX +0.2%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

EUR 1.1515-1.1502; JPY 157.75-157.16; AUD 0.7024-0.6997; NZD 0.5874-0.5862.

Gold +0.2% at $4,062/oz; BTC +1.7% at $63,900; WTI Crude Oil +1.2% at $81.27/bbl; Copper +1.1% at $6.6125/lbs.