AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls may take their chances and push it towards 0.6600

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6538

• Trading was choppy at the beginning of the week amid holidays in America.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the Minutes of its latest meeting.
• AUD/USD maintains its positive tone, aims to test the 0.6610 resistance level.

The Australian Dollar benefited from the better tone of equities at the beginning of the week, posting modest gains against its American rival. AUD/USD traded as high as 0.6551, standing a handful of pips below the level ahead of the Asian opening. Activity across financial markets was limited amid holidays in the United States (US) and Canada, alongside a scarce macroeconomic calendar.

Australia will open the macroeconomic calendar with the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes. The central bank kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% in its February meeting, and policymakers reiterated that they remain data-dependent. Additionally, officials maintained a mildly hawkish tone, indicating that “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out.”  The minutes could provide fresh clues on what the RBA Board plans to do next or even what policymakers need to feel more confident about inflation going down and begin trimming rates.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will announce its decision on Interest rates. The PBOC fixes the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) every month.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair trades just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its latest daily slump measured between 0.6871 and 0.6442 at 0.6542. The 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline comes at 0.6610, with a break above it required for a steeper recovery.

Technically, the daily chart shows that a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges with a bearish 20 SMA, both near the mentioned Fibonacci resistance. At the same time, and despite the AUD/USD advancing for four days in a row, technical indicators remain directionless within negative levels, suggesting buying interest remains limited.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside despite a limited bullish momentum. AUD/USD develops above a bullish 20 SMA while meeting intraday buying around a flat 100 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, eased from their recent highs but remain within positive levels with limited downward strength.  

Support levels: 0.6500 0.6465 0.6430

Resistance levels: 0.6545 0.6580 0.6610