|

A jenga tower ready to topple

  • The Dollar recovers for a short time.
  • Oil and euros move the krone.

Good Day... And a Wonder Dog Wednesday to you! My beloved Cardinals got back to winning last night in Cincinnati 3-0.. Good pitching , received timely hitting and that was that! I really don't like the Reds because of the brawl they started with the Cardinals years ago... and the damage they did to our backup catcher who had to retire afterwards.... Ok, don't get me all riled up so early, move on.... The temps have backed off BIG TIME here and I was able to sit outside and watch the game... Jo Jo Gunne greets me this morning with their song: Run Run Run.... 

Well, the dollar didn't do much yesterday except gain 1 index point to leave it at 1,201 in the BBDXY... But the dollars lack of performance didn't carry over to Gold/Silver as they were attacked right from the get-go yesterday by the SPTs who wouldn't let up on their attack all through the day... Gold lost $85 and Silver lost $2.45... I would say that the SPTs had some pent-up frustration, that their last engineered attack on Gold/Silver didn't scare away investors for Gold / Silver fought back to reach $4,400 and $65 respectively.... 

It's really sad that they go through these engineered takedowns , don't you agree? I mean, I'm holding on to my Gold/Silver for they haven't shook me with these takedowns... I've talked to folks through the years don't believe these takedowns exist, that it's just Gold/Silver holders selling at specific levels... I tell they, they may be selling, but they wouldn't have the effect on the price like the SPTs do with their arms full of short contracts showing up at the window.... 

The price of Oil bumped higher yesterday, to end the day trading with an $85 handle, and the 10-year Treasury, which had seen its yield rise to 4.74% yesterday morning, saw the Fed Heads implement some of their "yield control" and brought the yield down to 4.71%.... 

In the overnight markets last night.... The dollar got sold overnight, as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz just keeps getting darker.... I know, the dollar got bought while the war went on, but now things are clearer and minus a nuclear bomb the U.S. must pull out of the region and stop bleeding money that we don't have.... So, the dollar sits at 1,198 this morning in the BBDXY... down 3 index points and looking very peeked... Time for the PPT? Only the shadow knows that.. 

Well, the price of Gold is up $30 to start our day... and Silver is up 26-cents.... The thing that gets me so riled up with the SPTs is that they have become so brazen in the takedown, and no longer attempt to fly under the radar... The SPTs just seem to do whatever they want and there's no regulators that will stop them... 

The price of Oil remained trading with an $85 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury is seeing some buying to start our day. I Know it's strange but stranger things have gone on here... The yield to start our day is 4.69%... 

Regarding the SPTs, they didn't let Copper get off free yesterday and they clobbered it to bring it to $6.52... Just a week ago this metal was $6.79... The boys have really done to Copper that they've done to Gold/Silver for decades now...

There's lots of articles out there regarding the yen intervention by the U.S... But, believe me that my description of what happened from day one is bang on (except the U.S. sold euros, not dollars to buy yen) And that is that the U.S. seeing that Japan is the largest holder of Treasuries, and that they are liquid enough that they would be sold by the Bank of Japan to support the yen... And the U.S. couldn't stand the thought of the BOJ selling their Treasury stash... So, the U.S. joined the BOJ and supported the yen... A lot of good they did, the markets will get back to selling yen as soon as the dust settles in the East....

And circling back to the dollar... Really, I mean let's talk about the euro... The Eurozone has their own debt problems but the pale in comparison to the U.S. and Japan, so when the dollar gets sold, the euro responds favorably first... And I told you last week that it would take some time for the traders to get back to buying euros after $10 Billion of them were sold to buy yen.... And this morning, the euro has a 1.16 handle... So, I guess it's time... 

And with the euro finally getting past the 1.15 level, it gives trades the freedom to buy Norwegian krone again... The krone is an Oil play, but they also are a euro-play... And when both the euro and Oil are in rally mode, the krone is bought by the truckload.... I'm just saying...

The U.S. Data Cupboard had the July prints of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization... Industrial Production show at .2% growth... not a number I would write home about. Capacity Utilization was flat to down .01%, so Companies are not expanding their offices any time in the near future.. 

To recap...The dollar, just like it did last week, has now recovered all the ground it lost last Friday... Gold & Silver got whacked good by the SPTs, as they attempt to get Gold/Silver as an investment non-gratis to investors.... I doubt it works for "real holders of the metals" and not the short timers who heard about Gold / Silver's rises and wanted to take part in them.... 

For What It's Worth... Well, it's been awhile since I had the GATA folks send me something and now I have something for you...

Here's your snippet: "The first U.S.-Japan joint intervention in three decades aimed at boosting the yen has come and gone without doing much to ease anxiety in currency markets.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's notepad suggested the U.S. bought $5 billion-$10 billion worth of yen, while Japan's move topped $50 billion. The exchange rate initially strengthened to about 157 yen per dollar from nearly 164, but has since given back some gains and hovered around 159 on Friday.

To be sure, efforts to prop up the yen were seen as short-term measures to address the symptoms rather than the root causes of the currency's weakness. Those include Japan's massive debt that exceeds 200% of GDP, fiscal stimulus that is expected to worsen the deficit, and a central bank that has been slow to raise rates in the face of high inflation.

But given that the yen’s recent instability was enough to trigger the U.S.-Japan intervention, a key underpinning of global financial markets appears riskier.

"Now traders are watching the 'yen carry trade,' where cheap yen borrowing funds bets on higher-yielding assets worldwide, and wondering if it's about to blow up," Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni wrote in a note on Tuesday. "The financial system right now looks like a giant Jenga tower with the yen as a load-bearing piece." ...

Chuck Again... and to think that U.S. secretary Bessent basically fired a bazooka at the currency markets and that Bazooka hasn't scared anyone against shorting yen... It's basically wasted money... but don't let that get to you Scott, better men than you have attempted to save the yen and they all have failed! 

Market Prices 8/19/2026: American Style: A$ .7074, kiwi .5879, C$ .7207, euro 1.1604, sterling 1.3554, Swiss $1.2342, European Style: rand 16.2545, krone 9.4029, SEK 9.5147, forint 314.33, zloty 3.7279, koruna 20.8271, RUB 84.99, yen 159.12, sing 1.2763, HKD 7.8416, INR 95.76, China 6.7391, peso 17.04, BRL 5.2190, BBDXY 1,198, Dollar Index 99.57, Oil $85.80, 10-year 4.69%, Silver $63.67, Platinum $1,741.00, Palladium $1,315.00, Copper $6.52... and Gold... $4,365.

That's it for today and this week, as there will be no Pfennig tomorrow, and the next time I write to you is next Monday... Good friend Dewey came down and sat outside with me to watch the game last night... he's normally not in town but was this time so got to catch up... and Thursday is not only infusion day for me, but it's also the birthday of my darling daughter, Dawn... I remember when she was born and to this day she's still tiny.... A lot like my Grandmother on my dad's side... She's still pretty as can be, and so I hope she has a grand day! Billy Joe Royal takes us to the finish line today with his song: I Knew You When... I hope you have a Wonder Dog Day today and Please Be Good to Yourself!

Author

Chuck Butler

Chuck Butler

The Aden Forecast

Chuck has a long history of being associated the investment markets. He started in a regional brokerage firm in 1973, and it was just like the act of Nixon taking the U.S.

More from Chuck Butler
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD advances to three-month peak near 1.3600

GBP/USD extends its daily rally and trades at its highest level since mid-May at around 1.3600. The US Treasury Department decision to double the sice of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securitiez weighs heavily on the US Dollar and helps the pair push higher. Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation picked up to 2.9% in July, meeting estimates, while core CPI rose by 2.6% YoY in July versus 2.5% expected.

EUR/USD climbs to 10-week high above 1.1600 on broad USD weakness

EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since early June above 1.1600 on Wednesday. The US Dollar stays under heavy bearish pressure after the US Treasury announced that it will increase the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities. Later in the day, investors will scrutinize FOMC Minutes for fresh clues on policy outlook.

Gold climbs 2% as US Treasury buyback plan pressures long-term yields

Gold (XAU/USD) enters Wednesday’s American trading hours with decent intraday gains, as a softer US Dollar (USD) and a sharp pullback in long-term US Treasury yields help the metal recover all the previous day’s losses.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP defend key support as ETF inflows return

Bitcoin’s upside remains capped on Wednesday while the downside appears strongly supported above $64,000. The Crypto King’s early week rebound lost momentum near $65,000 as investors assessed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Minutes of the July FOMC meeting serves as one of today’s economic highlights
Bear steepening turned into bear flattening in Europe yesterday. Daily changes on the German yield curve ranged between +2.4 bps (30-yr) and +5 bps (2-yr). EU swap rates added 0.9 bps (30-yr) to 4.5 bps (2-yr). The US/Iran stalemate and higher energy prices offer a first explanation.
Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?
Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.