WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $91.00 as bulls await breakout above 200-hour EMA
- WTI attracts some follow-through buying as persistent geopolitical uncertainties lend support.
- The broader technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for further appreciation.
- A sustained strength above the 200-hour EMA is needed to validate the constructive outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices stick to a positive bias for the second consecutive day on Thursday, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction. The commodity currently trades around the $91.00 mark, up nearly 0.60% for the day, and remains supported by uncertainties surrounding conflicts in the Middle East.
Despite US President Donald Trump's ceasefire rhetoric, Iran publicly rejected claims of ongoing negotiations and has reportedly set sweeping demands to wind down the widening Middle East conflict. Apart from this, the deployment of additional US troops in the region points to the risk of a further escalation of tensions, which, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, a move beyond the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (SMA), around the $91.45 region, will be seen as a key trigger for intraday bulls. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line marginally above its signal and a contracting histogram, which suggests easing but still positive upside pressure after the recent advance from the mid-$80s.
Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 points to firm bullish momentum without overbought stress, aligning with a continuation bias while leaving room for corrective dips. In the meantime, initial resistance appears at the $91.45 area defined by the 200-hour EMA, with a sustained break above this region opening the door toward the mid-$92s.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $90.30, followed by a more important shelf around $89.50, where the latest impulse higher began to accelerate. A violation of $89.50 would weaken the bullish structure and expose the $88.50–$88.00 band as the next demand zone. Nevertheless, strength above $90.30 keeps the path tilted toward a test of the $91 handle and the $91.40 barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
