WTI Price Forecast: Holds above $95.50, remains close to multi-week top amid bullish setup
- WTI is seen consolidating its move higher, witnessed over the past six days.
- Escalating Middle East tensions might continue to support the black liquid.
- The bullish technical setup further supports prospects for additional gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, trading as it holds above mid-$95.00s and remains close to a nearly four-week high, touched the previous day.
US President Donald Trump stated that he would not use nuclear weapons in Iran and does not foresee deploying American ground troops to the Islamic Republic, easing concerns about a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and weighing on the black liquid. However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid intensifying fighting between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the commodity retains a bullish near-term bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October decline. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with the latest reading at 0.12, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.10 stays in bullish but not yet overbought ground. Momentum indicators together back the constructive outlook.
In the meantime, immediate support is seen at the reclaimed 50% retracement at $94.18, followed by the 200-period SMA clustered near $92.50 and the 38.2% retracement at $92.31. Deeper pullbacks would likely look to the 23.6% retracement at $89.99 as a more significant structural floor. On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $96.05, ahead of a stronger barrier at the 78.6% level around $98.72, with the recent swing high at $102.11 acting as a more distant cap if the rally extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
