WTI Price Forecast: Fails ahead of $100.00 amid Straight of Hormuz reopening efforts
- WTI attracts some intraday sellers following a bullish gap opening to a one-week top on Monday.
- Efforts aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz ease supply concerns and weigh on the commodity.
- The technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buying.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices retreated from the vicinity of the $100.00 psychological mark, or a one-week high touched during the Asian session on Monday. The commodity slides below the $96.00 mark in the last hour and, for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak, though the downside potential seems limited amid the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be restored as soon as possible. Adding to this, European Union (EU) foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to debate a potential naval response to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that he is discussing with other countries about policing the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, eases concern about disruption to global supplies and weighs on Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the commodity struggles to build on the recent bounce from sub-$76.00 levels beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the corrective pullback from a multi-year peak, touched last Monday. That said, the near-term bias leans bullish as Crude Oil prices hold well above the rising 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart near $85.70, underscoring a firmly established uptrend on this timeframe.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive again with the MACD line lifting back toward the zero line, suggesting improving upside momentum after the recent pullback from the $97.90 area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 stays above the 50 midline and below overbought territory, aligning with a controlled bullish tone rather than a stretched rally.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at $98.90, with a break above this level opening the door toward a retest of the psychological $100.00 region. On the downside, initial support is located at the 50.0% retracement at $94.62, which coincides with the latest consolidation area, while deeper weakness would expose $90.33 at the 38.2% retracement as the next key floor. The rising 200-period SMA reinforces the broader support backdrop below these Fibonacci levels and would underpin the bullish bias as long as WTI holds comfortably above it.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 1-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
