WTI Price Forecast: Eases from two-week high; trades below $94.00 amid bullish setup
- WTI struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session move up to an over two-week high.
- The downside seems limited as escalating Middle East tensions counter easing supply fears.
- The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – retreats from the vicinity of mid-$94.00s, or an over two-week high set during the Asian session on this Wednesday, snapping a four-day winning streak. The commodity, however, lacks follow-through selling and currently trades around the $93.75-$93.70 region, down less than 0.20% for the day.
Hope that the US-Russia diesel agreement could free up additional supplies and cap crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the downside remains cushioned amid escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Furthermore, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the black liquid.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices retain a bullish near-term tone, awaiting a sustained move beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October slide before extending a one-week-old uptrend amid constructive momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around 64, signaling firm but not yet overbought buying pressure.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a modestly positive reading that hints at sustained upside bias. Hence, a move beyond the 50% retracement at $94.24 could extend further to the 61.8% level at $96.13 and the 78.6% retracement at $98.83 before oil prices aim to test the cycle high near $102.26.
On the downside, the first notable support is clustered around the 38.2% retracement at $92.35, ahead of secondary demand at the 23.6% level at $90.01, while the broader bullish structure would likely be questioned only on a deeper slide toward the $86.22 anchor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
